Plan séquence - RGA : Les assureurs au régime sec

jeudi 25 mai 2023

Jamais, depuis la création du régime d’indemnisation des catastrophes naturelles en France, les conséquences de la sécheresse n’auront coûté aussi cher. Devant la montée en puissance du phénomène RGA, assureurs, politiques et pouvoirs publics tentent d’anticiper à chaud un péril dont l’impact financier pourrait tripler d’ici 2050.

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RGA : Les assureurs au régime sec

[/vc_customtyping][vc_empty_space height="35px"][vc_column_text css_animation="none" el_class="custom_paragraphe"]Jamais, depuis la création du régime d’indemnisation des catastrophes naturelles en France, les conséquences de la sécheresse n’auront coûté aussi cher. Devant la montée en puissance du phénomène RGA, assureurs, politiques et pouvoirs publics tentent d’anticiper à chaud un péril dont l’impact financier pourrait tripler d’ici 2050. [/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css_animation="none" el_class="custom_paragraphe"]

Par Thierry Gouby

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Un péril hors de contrôle

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1-1 Record battu

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Avec une facture globale de près de 10,6Mds d’euros, 2022 aura été pour les assureurs français la pire année sur le front des catastrophes naturelles depuis 1999 avec Lothar et Martin. Si les épisodes de grêles, les tempêtes à répétition et les feux de forêts géants ont rythmé cette « annus horribilis », c’est pourtant la sécheresse qui est largement venue grever les comptes des compagnies.

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Six des neuf années les plus sinistrées sur le RGA en France l’ont été post-2015

Moins spectaculaires mais tout autant coûteux, les sinistres liés au phénomène RGA (retrait-gonflement des argiles) se sont multipliés ces dernières années. Selon France Assureurs, la sécheresse pèse depuis 2016 près de 24% de la sinistralité climatique annuelle de l’Hexagone (contre 15% entre 1989 et 2016).

Depuis 2010, près de 55% des sinistres sécheresses surviennent hors période estivale (juillet à septembre).

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« Le réchauffement climatique va continuer à aggraver la facture climatique : le coût des sinistres liés au climat devrait doubler d’ici 2050 par rapport aux trente années précédentes (étude France Assureurs). Et certains périls vont s’intensifier encore davantage : nous nous attendons à un triplement du coût des sinistres sur les bâtis liés au phénomène de retrait et gonflement des sols argileux (RGA) induit par la sécheresse », explique Franck Le Vallois, le directeur général de France Assureur.

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viewport_md="" viewport_sm="" viewport_xs="" settings__empty_1="" el_class="" version="1" css=""][vc_column extend="false"][vc_single_image image="1465772" img_size="full" alignment="center"][vc_empty_space][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row extend="false" rtl_reverse="" css_animation="" bg_type="bg_color" bg_grad="" bg_color_value="#935642" parallax_style="vcpb-default" bg_image_new="id^1473187|url^https://d1p2aimeyx6kdr.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/28162512/bercy_1.jpg|caption^null|alt^null|title^bercy_1|description^null" layer_image="" bg_image_repeat="" bg_image_size="" bg_cstm_size="" bg_img_attach="" parallax_sense="30" bg_image_posiiton="" animation_direction="" animation_repeat="" video_url="" video_url_2="" u_video_url="" video_opts="loop" video_poster="" u_start_time="" u_stop_time="" viewport_vdo="" enable_controls="" controls_color="" bg_override="" disable_on_mobile_img_parallax="" parallax_content="" parallax_content_sense="" fadeout_row="" fadeout_start_effect="" enable_overlay="" overlay_color="" overlay_pattern="" overlay_pattern_opacity="" overlay_pattern_size="" overlay_pattern_attachment="" multi_color_overlay="uvc-multi-color-bg" multi_color_overlay_opacity="" seperator_enable="" seperator_type="" seperator_position="" seperator_shape_size="" seperator_svg_height="" seperator_shape_background="" seperator_shape_border="" seperator_shape_border_color="" seperator_shape_border_width="" icon_type="" icon="" icon_size="" icon_color="" icon_style="" icon_color_bg="" icon_border_style="" icon_color_border="" icon_border_size="" icon_border_radius="" icon_border_spacing="" icon_img="" img_width="" ult_hide_row="" ult_hide_row_large_screen="" ult_hide_row_desktop="" ult_hide_row_tablet="" ult_hide_row_tablet_small="" ult_hide_row_mobile="" ult_hide_row_mobile_large="" notification="" full_width="stretch_row" equal_height="" content_placement="" design__empty_1="" full_height="" columns_placement="top" background="" background_image_type="static" background_image__effect="" bg_size="initial" bg_position="center-center" row_bg_image="" bg_repeat="no-repeat" background_image_type__bg_color="rgba(255, 255, 255, 1)" row_bg_parallax_images="" row_bg_slideshow_images="" background_video_type="youtube" background_video__youtube__url="" background_video__youtube__parallax="" background_video__youtube__options="loop" background_video__youtube__fallback_image="" background_video__hosted__mp4="" background_video__hosted__webm="" background_video__hosted__ogv="" background_video__hosted__parallax="" background_video__hosted__options="loop" background_video__hosted__fallback_image="" background_color_type="color" bg__empty_1="" background_color_type__gradient_color1="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" background_color_type__gradient_color2="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" background_color_type__color_color1="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" bg__empty_2="" background_color__effect="" background_color__direction="left-to-right" parallax="" parallax_speed_bg="1.5" parallax_image="" video_bg="" video_bg_url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMJXxhRFO1k" video_bg_parallax="" el_id="" gap="0" disable_element="" settings__tag_1="" viewport_lg="" viewport_md="" viewport_sm="" viewport_xs="" settings__empty_1="" el_class="" version="1" css=""][vc_column extend="false" el_class="chapitre_x_title" version="1"][vc_column_text]

1-2 Coût sec !

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Avec un coût annuel moyen par sinistre d’environ 16.000 euros, la sécheresse a déjà pesé près de 14Mds d’euros entre 1989 et 2019 en France et son impact devrait atteindre les 43Mds d’euros entre 2020 et 2050, selon la fédération des assureurs.

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fadeout_start_effect="" enable_overlay="" overlay_color="" overlay_pattern="" overlay_pattern_opacity="" overlay_pattern_size="" overlay_pattern_attachment="" multi_color_overlay="uvc-multi-color-bg" multi_color_overlay_opacity="" seperator_enable="" seperator_type="" seperator_position="" seperator_shape_size="" seperator_svg_height="" seperator_shape_background="" seperator_shape_border="" seperator_shape_border_color="" seperator_shape_border_width="" icon_type="" icon="" icon_size="" icon_color="" icon_style="" icon_color_bg="" icon_border_style="" icon_color_border="" icon_border_size="" icon_border_radius="" icon_border_spacing="" icon_img="" img_width="" ult_hide_row="" ult_hide_row_large_screen="" ult_hide_row_desktop="" ult_hide_row_tablet="" ult_hide_row_tablet_small="" ult_hide_row_mobile="" ult_hide_row_mobile_large="" notification="" full_width="stretch_row" equal_height="" content_placement="" design__empty_1="" full_height="" columns_placement="top" background="" 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parallax_speed_bg="1.5" parallax_image="" video_bg="" video_bg_url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMJXxhRFO1k" video_bg_parallax="" el_id="" gap="0" disable_element="" settings__tag_1="" viewport_lg="" viewport_md="" viewport_sm="" viewport_xs="" settings__empty_1="" el_class="" version="1" css=""][vc_column extend="false" width="1/2" el_class="chapitre_x_title" version="1"][vc_column_text]

Mais le phénomène RGA ne touche pas que les particuliers. Entreprises ou exploitations agricoles sont elles aussi impactées par la montée en puissance de la sécheresse. Ainsi, selon la dernière étude d’impact 2022 de la CCR, les pertes de récoltes devraient augmenter de 25% d’ici 2050 et les épisodes de sécheresse majeurs comme ceux de 2003 ou 2022 pourraient doubler et intervenir tous les sept ans.

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Les pertes économiques annuelles moyennes (sur les cultures de blé tendre d’hiver, orge d’hiver et prairies) étaient de 1,2Md d'euros en 2000 et pourraient atteindre 1,5Md d'euros en 2050, soit une évolution de 22%. Sur ces montants des dommages, les prairies représentent environ 70% de la sinistralité (CCR)

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parallax_speed_bg="1.5" parallax_image="" video_bg="" video_bg_url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMJXxhRFO1k" video_bg_parallax="" el_id="" gap="0" disable_element="" settings__tag_1="" viewport_lg="" viewport_md="" viewport_sm="" viewport_xs="" settings__empty_1="" el_class="" version="1" css=""][vc_column extend="false"][vc_column_text]

1-3 Zones rouges

Alors qu’il existe actuellement en France de grands bassins de sécheresse identifiés de longue date comme le sud-ouest, le sud-est (et notamment la partie sud de la région PACA), le centre et l’Île-de-France, « Depuis 2/3 ans, nous constatons que cette cartographie s’étend et que la région, relativement épargnée jusqu’alors, est désormais impactée », explique pour sa part Christophe Gadouleau, directeur dommage du groupe Saretec. Aujourd’hui, 48% du territoire sont ainsi exposés à un risque sécheresse moyen ou fort (soit 54% des maisons individuelles en France métropolitaine), selon le ministère de la Transition écologique.

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Dans un livre blanc publié l’an dernier, Covéa estime pour sa part que le croissant argileux hexagonale (le Bassin parisien, les Hauts-de-France et le Centre-Est) est la zone où la sinistralité va le plus croître dans les années à venir.

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3,3 millions de maisons se situent en zone à risque de sécheresse fort

90% des sinistres sont concentrés sur 42 départements

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255, 255, 1)" row_bg_parallax_images="" row_bg_slideshow_images="" background_video_type="youtube" background_video__youtube__url="" background_video__youtube__parallax="" background_video__youtube__options="" background_video__youtube__fallback_image="" background_video__hosted__mp4="" background_video__hosted__webm="" background_video__hosted__ogv="" background_video__hosted__parallax="" background_video__hosted__options="" background_video__hosted__fallback_image="" background_color_type="color" bg__empty_1="" background_color_type__gradient_color1="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" background_color_type__gradient_color2="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" background_color_type__color_color1="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" bg__empty_2="" background_color__effect="" background_color__direction="left-to-right" parallax="" parallax_speed_bg="1.5" parallax_image="" video_bg="" video_bg_url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMJXxhRFO1k" video_bg_parallax="" el_id="" gap="0" disable_element="" settings__tag_1="" viewport_lg="" viewport_md="" viewport_sm="" viewport_xs="" settings__empty_1="" el_class="" version="1" css=""][vc_column extend="false"][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner extend="false"][vc_single_image image="1548857" img_size="full" alignment="center" el_class="image_separateur"][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row extend="false" rtl_reverse="" css_animation="" bg_type="bg_color" bg_grad="" bg_color_value="#251c1c" parallax_style="vcpb-vz-jquery" bg_image_new="id^993396|url^https://d1p2aimeyx6kdr.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/02115007/texture_brique2.jpg|caption^null|alt^null|title^texture_brique2|description^null" layer_image="" bg_image_repeat="" bg_image_size="initial" bg_cstm_size="" bg_img_attach="" parallax_sense="30" bg_image_posiiton="" animation_direction="" animation_repeat="" video_url="" video_url_2="" u_video_url="" video_opts="loop" video_poster="" u_start_time="" u_stop_time="" viewport_vdo="" enable_controls="" controls_color="" 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equal_height="" content_placement="" design__empty_1="" full_height="" columns_placement="top" background="" background_image_type="static" background_image__effect="" bg_size="initial" bg_position="center-center" row_bg_image="" bg_repeat="no-repeat" background_image_type__bg_color="rgba(255, 255, 255, 1)" row_bg_parallax_images="" row_bg_slideshow_images="" background_video_type="youtube" background_video__youtube__url="" background_video__youtube__parallax="" background_video__youtube__options="loop" background_video__youtube__fallback_image="" background_video__hosted__mp4="" background_video__hosted__webm="" background_video__hosted__ogv="" background_video__hosted__parallax="" background_video__hosted__options="loop" background_video__hosted__fallback_image="" background_color_type="color" bg__empty_1="" background_color_type__gradient_color1="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" background_color_type__gradient_color2="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" background_color_type__color_color1="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" bg__empty_2="" background_color__effect="" background_color__direction="left-to-right" parallax="" parallax_speed_bg="1.5" parallax_image="" video_bg="" video_bg_url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMJXxhRFO1k" video_bg_parallax="" el_id="chapitre2" gap="0" disable_element="" settings__tag_1="" viewport_lg="" viewport_md="" viewport_sm="" viewport_xs="" settings__empty_1="" el_class="" version="1" css=""][vc_column extend="false" el_class="chapitre_x_title" version="1"][vc_single_image image="1549895" img_size="full" alignment="center"][vc_customtyping]

Les indemnisations en questions

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2-1 Au coeur de la tension

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Depuis l’intégration du risque sécheresse dans le régime Cat Nat en 1989, quelque 971.800 sinistres ont été recensés en France pour un coût légèrement supérieur à 16Mds d’euros. Devant l’accélération des sinistres RGA ces dernières années, plusieurs modifications législatives sont venues bouleverser le rôle et l’intervention des assureurs, notamment en termes d’indemnisations.

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« Depuis une dizaine d’années, les assureurs se sont mobilisés pour moderniser le régime Cat Nat en vue d’améliorer la protection des assurés. Cela a abouti à la loi du 28 décembre 2021 qui a permis plus de transparence et un renforcement dans l’accompagnement des sinistrés, à travers notamment la prise en charge par les compagnies des frais de relogement des sinistrés jusqu’à 6 mois, la transmission automatique des rapports d’expertise et également une simplification de l’application des franchises. Ensuite, l’ordonnance du 8 février 2023 est venue légiférer sur la problématique spécifique du RGA dans le cadre de l’habilitation donnée au Gouvernement par la loi dite « 3DS ». Elle apporte des évolutions notables comme l’assouplissement des critères de reconnaissance de l’état de catastrophe naturelle et davantage de lisibilité dans le fonctionnement du régime Cat Nat », indique Franck Le Vallois.

Au total, l’ensemble des nouvelles dispositions introduites par la loi Baudu et l’ordonnance 3DS ont un impact supplémentaire estimé par France Assureurs à 300M d’euros par an pour le régime, venant ainsi alourdir encore le fragile équilibre technique de ce dernier (voir chapitre N°3).

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background_color__direction="left-to-right" parallax="" parallax_speed_bg="1.5" parallax_image="" video_bg="" video_bg_url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMJXxhRFO1k" video_bg_parallax="" el_id="" gap="0" disable_element="" settings__tag_1="" viewport_lg="" viewport_md="" viewport_sm="" viewport_xs="" settings__empty_1="" el_class="" version="1" css=""][vc_column extend="false" el_class="chapitre_x_title" version="1"][vc_column_text]

2-2 La PPL Rousseau divise

En sus de ces récentes évolutions, un rapport d’information parlementaire sur le RGA, présenté en mars 2023 par les députées Sandrine Rousseau et Sandra Marsaud, est venu remettre en question le système de prise en charge des dommages dus à la sécheresse dans le cadre du régime Cat Nat. « La procédure particulièrement complexe et mal adaptée occasionne un déficit d’indemnisation peu compréhensible qui ne permet même plus de préserver la soutenabilité financière du régime », écrivent ces dernières en formulant plusieurs propositions.

Dans la foulée, les deux députés déposent une PPL adoptée par la commission des finances de l’Assemblée Nationale (avec modifications) et qui vient redéfinir le partenariat existant entre assureurs et État dans la prise en charge des sinistres sécheresse.

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Cette dernière introduit par exemple une présomption de causalité entre les dommages et le RGA. Ainsi, en cas de refus d’indemnisation des porteurs de risques ces derniers devront justifier cette décision, notamment par une étude des sols qui serait obligatoire. « Le phénomène RGA est différent des autres catastrophes naturelles. Il s’évalue dans le temps et dans presque un cas sur deux, le lien de causalité entre le RGA et l’origine des fissures était remis en cause par les assureurs au cours des opérations d'expertise. Jusqu’alors, les assureurs pouvaient ainsi refuser une indemnisation au motif qu’il ne s’agissait pas d’une conséquence de la sécheresse », indique Romain Dupeyré, avocat associé au sein du cabinet DWF.

Selon France Assureurs, 53% des sinistres sécheresse faisant l’objet d’un arrêté Cat Nat sont en moyenne classés sans suite, pour diverses raisons.

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« Concernant la PPL Rousseau, si nous sommes satisfaits qu’elle maintienne le RGA au sein du régime Cat Nat, plusieurs dispositions nous semblent problématiques, réplique Franck Le Vallois. D’abord, la présomption réfragable (inversion de la charge de la preuve) est selon nous contraire au Code civil. Cela impliquerait que chaque sinistré bénéficie a priori du régime Cat Nat et induirait de fait une hausse du nombre de contentieux. Cela allongerait alors significativement les délais de gestion avec une hausse mécanique des coûts que les Français ne comprendraient pas ».

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De même, le directeur général de France Assureurs considère que l’expertise obligatoire introduite dans la PPL Rousseau n’est pas nécessaire pour déterminer la cause des fissures d’un bâti. « Rendre obligatoire les études de sol aurait - au regard des capacités de réponse des cabinets d’étude déjà limitées - des conséquences qui n’ont pas du tout été anticipées ni pesées. Lorsque l’on passe cette PPL au tamis de la réalité de terrain, il apparaît évident que ses conséquences éventuelles n’ont fait l’objet d’aucune étude d’impact ».

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« L'ensemble des mesures qui figurent dans cette proposition de loi aurait un impact conséquent sur le régime Cat Nat, de l’ordre de 880 millions à 1 milliard d’euros. Cela viendrait déstabiliser fortement le régime Cat Nat, mettant en péril sa pérennité ».

« Il faut garder à l’esprit que ce sont des sujets très techniques. Lorsqu’on parle RGA, on parle d’une matière vivante, complexe à appréhender avec des causes géologiques et des fondements scientifiques, déclare Pascal Chapelon, président d’Agéa. Même s’il y a un vrai danger autour de la sécheresse, tant dans la connaissance et la maîtrise du risque, cela mérite de prendre le recul nécessaire pour ne pas légiférer tous azimuts. Il faut de la méthode », tempère ce dernier.

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A bas régime

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3-1 Haro sur la surprime

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Au-delà de l’ensemble des propositions aujourd’hui sur la table, c’est bien la question de la pérennité du régime Cat Nat qui se pose à travers le risque sécheresse.

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Selon un rapport de la cour des Comptes rendu l’an dernier, « la tension sur les comptes du régime est déjà palpable depuis quelques années. Les réserves de la CCR ont baissé de 44% entre 2015 et 2020 (passant de 3,85Mds d’euros à 2,67Mds d’euros), réduisant ainsi le seuil d’intervention de l’État en garantie ». Pour pallier ce trou d’air, l’une des pistes les plus souvent avancées est celle du rehaussement de la surprime Cat Nat, c’est-à-dire la part prélevée sur chaque contrats MRH (12%) et auto (6%) dédiée au fonctionnement du régime. Aujourd’hui, un particulier contribue en moyenne à hauteur de 22 euros au titre du régime par le biais de sa prime d’assurance habitation. Demain, ce montant va probablement évoluer en raison de l’augmentation du coût du risque.

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Chacun y va donc de son petit calcul. Si certains appellent à un rehaussement progressif de cette surprime - relever d’un point le taux de surprime permettrait d’engranger 150M d’euros supplémentaires – d’autres sont prêts à une hausse plus conséquente, jusqu’à 18% pour la MRH.« Ce qui me surprend, c’est que l’on veuille absolument saucissonner le sujet RGA dans le fond d’indemnisation des catastrophes naturelles pourtant dédié à de nombreuses problématiques climatiques. Ensuite, sur la fameuse surprime, cela doit permettre de pérenniser le régime dans son ensemble et pas uniquement sur la sécheresse, lance le président d’Agéa. Il y a surtout un sujet sur le coût du sinistre. Il ne faut pas se leurrer, face à l’inflation et à la hausse du prix des matières premières, il faut se préparer à ce que le tarif moyen de la MRH en France grimpe ».

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3-2 Reconstruction et prévention

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Au-delà d’un éventuel rehaussement du niveau de surprime qui relève de Bercy, assureurs, experts et pouvoirs publics planchent évidement sur d’autres solutions plus concrètes pour tenter d’endiguer les conséquences du RGA.Cela passe d’abord par un questionnement sur les méthodes de reconstruction et de consolidation du bâti employées jusqu’alors. « Depuis 10 ans, la solution d’installer des micropieux était en quelques sortes la norme, même si cela coûtait très cher. Depuis, d’autres solutions sont apparues (étanchéité horizontale, réhydratation des sols, etc) et avant de vouloir légiférer immédiatement, nous devons creuser ces pistes », indique Pascal Chapelon.

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Solutions de remédiation testées en laboratoire par le Cerema

- Stabilisation physico-chimique du sol argileux par ajout de sable et de de sel - Réhumidification du sol de fondation par la filtration des eaux usées domestiques - Limitation de l’évaporation du sol argileux par ajout d’huile végétale recyclée dans le sol de fondation et par la filtration des eaux usées domestiques - Stabilisation chimique du sol argileux par ajout de lait de chaux

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C’est par exemple en ce sens que travaille actuellement le Cerema sur de nouvelles solutions visant à agir sur la gestion des eaux et de l’environnement proche des habitats. L’établissement public, a ainsi expérimenté entre 2016 et 2020 un projet baptisé "MACH".

« Afin de stabiliser le sol autour d’une habitation, le dispositif consiste à récupérer l’eau de pluie et à la réinjecter dans le sol à l’aide de capteurs de succion permettant ainsi de réguler l’état hydrique pendant les périodes sèches », expliquait Lamine Ighil Ameur, chercheur en mécanique des sols au Cerema, lors de la présentation du dispositif au sein de la fédération des assureurs en septembre dernier.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column extend="false" width="1/2"][vc_column_text]

Car aux côtés de la remédiation, la prévention fait elle aussi figure de solution pérenne pour atténuer au maximum la charge sinistre. C’est en ce sens que la Cour des Comptes envisage de mettre en place un dispositif de contrôle et de sanction des mesures résultant de la loi Élan pour les constructions neuves en zones exposées au phénomène de RGA. Elle souhaite également intégrer le phénomène dans l’état des risques naturels et technologiques (ERNT), accessible à tout acquéreur ou locataire potentiel d’un bien immobilier. « Il va être très compliqué à l’avenir de proposer des solutions d’assurance pour les particuliers sans que des solutions de prévention aient été mises en œuvre. C’est un impératif qui se fait déjà en entreprises et qu’il va falloir appliquer aux particuliers. Des solutions simples existent, encore faut-il pouvoir les expliquer. Surtout, la prévention doit être incitative pour qu’elle fonctionne et permettre de faire baisser in fine le prix de la cotisation », précise pour sa part Pascal Chapelon.

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Preuve que le sujet sécheresse cristallise encore toutes les inquiétudes atour du changement climatique, le député Vincent Ledoux, s’est vu confiée une lettre de mission de la part de la 1ère Ministre relative à l’accompagnement et l’indemnisation des victimes de RGA. Ses travaux doivent être rendus au 1er octobre.

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À la Une

Cercle dommages

Dommages

IARD

Plan séquence - RGA : Les assureurs au régime sec

Depuis 2010, près de 55% des sinistres sécheresses surviennent hors période estivale (juillet à septembre).

3,3 millions de maisons se situent en zone à risque de sécheresse fort

90% des sinistres sont concentrés sur 42 départements

Solutions de remédiation testées en laboratoire par le Cerema

AXA France

eurocroissance

fonds euro

generali france

Gilbert Chahine

Hugues Aubry

unités de compte