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Plan séquence - Les assureurs-vie douchent le fonds

lundi 16 novembre 2020

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UNE HISTOIRE DE TAUX... TAUX

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Dans les années 80 et même 90, les contrats d'assurance vie en euros, enfin plutôt en francs à l'époque, offraient des rendements qui paraissent aujourd'hui surréalistes. Ils dépassaient allègrement les 6% nets d'inflation. 30 ans plus tard, ce n'est plus la même chanson. Ils surnagent parfois à peine au-dessus des 1% bruts d'inflation. Las, les assureurs-vie tentent de sonner la fin de la récréation. Mais on n'abandonne pas des habitudes d'épargnants chevillées au corps depuis 3 décennies en un claquement de doigts.

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Par Florian Delambily

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A l'heure où nous écrivons ces lignes l'OAT à 10 ans navigue autour des -0,30%. Il a même atteint un point bas à -0,442% le 28 août. Et ce n'est pas près de changer. Le gouverneur de la Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau l'a martelé au sortir de l'été. « Tant que l'inflation reste faible, notre devoir c'est de soutenir et d’accommoder la reprise. Nous allons maintenir des taux bas et des liquidités importantes aussi longtemps que ce sera nécessaire ». Voilà qui est dit.

Depuis que les taux sont entrés en territoire négatif en 2019, les assureurs cherchent par tous les moyens à réduire la voilure sur le fonds euros. Le premier levier fut celui de drastiquement baisser la rémunération des fonds généraux. Ainsi, en 2019, les niveaux de revalorisation des contrats d'assurance vie ont décroché de 37 points de base. Du jamais depuis 2011. En moyenne, il rapporte 1,46%, très loin des plus de 3% servis il y a encore 10 ans. Facts & Figures prédit même un nouveau tour de vis avec un rendement moyen compris entre 1% et 1,1%.

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Autre levier, pénaliser ou limiter les dépôts sur les contrats en euros en augmentant les frais ou en limitant les sommes que les épargnants peuvent déposer sur leurs contrats. C'est notamment le cas de l'Afer. L'association présidée par Gérard Bekerman, ardente défenderesse du fonds général impose désormais que les nouveaux entrants avec des versements supérieurs à 100.000 euros doivent obligatoirement prendre au moins 30% d’unités de compte.

Generali France pousse encore plus loin. Les nouveaux versements en assurance vie devront être composées d'une quote-part minimum de 60% en UC. De son côté, Crédit Agricole Assurances a revu sa tarification pour l’entrée sur les fonds euros en les fixant à minimum 2% pour inciter les épargnants à se positionner sur des placements plus risqués. Et les exemples pourraient se multiplier démontrant les contraintes du secteur de l'assurance vie.

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vers un scénario à la japonaise ?

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Dès lors, faut-il craindre un scénario à la japonaise ? « Tout comme pour les contrats japonais des années 1990, la rigidité des valeurs de rachat des produits français (de type contrats en euros), ne leur permettent pas de s’ajuster en fonction de l’évolution des valeurs de marché. Même si ce risque de rachat ne s’est jusqu’à présent pas matérialisé pour les produits d’assurance, il ne peut pas être écarté. Le marché français est également caractérisé par le niveau élevé de la valeur de rachat par rapport aux provisions mathématiques, ce qui constitue un facteur de risque de liquidité pour l’assureur », pointait l'ACPR dans un rapport sur le secteur de l’assurance vie au Japon publié en 2014.

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Les conséquences de la crise au Japon dans les années 1990 ont de quoi donné des sueurs froides à certains acteurs avec la faillite, en 1997, de Nissan Mutual Life. Elle avait précipité le marché nippon dans une crise particulièrement sévère. 5 autres assureurs mutualistes avaient mis la clé sous la porte, à savoir Toho Mutual Life en 1999, puis Daihyaku Mutual Life, Taisho Life, Chiyoda Mutual Life et Kyoei Life en 2000 et enfin Tokyo Mutual Life en 2001.

Faillites en cascade sur le marché japonais

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Mais la situation en France est légèrement différente. Les pouvoirs publics japonais misant sur une reprise économique avaient incité les assureurs-vie à poursuivre une politique de collecte d’épargne individuelle agressive jusqu’au milieu des années 1990. Ils avaient « demandé le maintien de taux garantis supérieurs au rendement des actifs, souhaitant enrayer la chute des nouvelles souscriptions pour retarder la constatation de moins-values dans les comptes des assureurs », rappelle l’ACPR. Un système de Ponzi s’était alors mis en place. Les flux entrants étaient utilisés pour financer les pertes des contrats antérieurs. Les organismes d’assurance-vie mutualistes reversaient ainsi jusqu’à 99% de leurs bénéfices issus des plus-values boursières se retrouvant dans l’incapacité de constituer des réserves.

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Le fonds euros n'a pas dit son dernier mot

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Nous l'avons vu, les efforts pour porter les efforts d'investissements des épargnants vers les supports non garantis en capital ont été radicaux. Pourtant, les chiffres dévoilés par l'ACPR au mois d'octobre sur le marché de l'assurance vie sont implacables. En 2019, malgré les restrictions imposées par les assureurs, la collecte nette s'est très bien portée. Elle a atterri à 20,4Mds d'euros, au-delà des 20,1Mds d'euros enregistrés en 2018.

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Pis, 75% de cette collecte nette a été réalisée sur les fonds euros. Et encore plus inquiétant, sur les 15,3Mds d'euros de collecte nette engrangés sur les fonds euros, 13,2Mds proviennent d’arbitrages des unités de comptes vers les fonds généraux. C'est de très loin le plus haut niveau d'arbitrage UC vers euros observé par le régulateur depuis 2011.

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Le début de l'année 2020 ne laisse pas entrevoir de bascule sur la collecte en assurance vie. « Nous sommes très inférieurs à l’écart-type observés ces dernières années en termes de rachat. Cela montre une certaine confiance des ménages dans l’assurance vie », observe Laurent Clerc, directeur DEAR à l’ACPR. Certes, la collecte est négative depuis le mois de mars.

La crise sanitaire et la recherche de placements plus liquides comme les livrets n'est pas étrangère à cette situation. Si l'on sort les mois de d'avril et de mai de l'équation, les chiffres des cotisations et des retraits demeurent à un niveau relativement proches de ceux de 2019. On notera simplement des dépôts un peu moins importants à l'origine de cet effet ciseau et de la collecte nette négative.

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Du côté des unités de compte, la collecte s'essouffle en valeur absolue, mais elle reste stable en valeur relative avec 34% des cotisations encaissées par les assureurs-vie entre janvier et septembre, derniers chiffres à notre disposition. La collecte mensuelle en unités de compte semble avoir atteint un plafond autour des 30 à 40% de la collecte brute totale quel que soit le niveau de cette dernière et quelles que soient les conditions économiques du pays. Et ce malgré les appels des assureurs et du régulateur à prendre plus de risques dans les placements et la volonté de financer l'économie des pouvoirs publics.

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Eviter d'être coulé par le fonds !

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Dans ce contexte de taux négatifs, les assureurs-vie n'ont d'autres choix que de muscler leur provision pour participation aux bénéfices afin d'amortir la chute tendancielle des rendements sur leurs contrats. En 10 ans, le taux de PB a été multiplié par 3 avec une nette accélération depuis 2016. Il représente désormais, en moyenne 4,7% des provisions mathématiques avec de fortes disparités selon les typologies d'acteurs. Les bancassureurs qui disposent de très gros encours affichent un taux de 5,8% des provisions mathématiques contre 3,4% pour les mutuelles et 2,9% pour les autres acteurs de l'assurance vie.

Cette prudence a été renforcée par le passage des taux de l'OAT à 10 ans en territoire négatif. Mais également par les évolutions réglementaires. Ainsi, comme le rappel l'ACPR dans son étude sur la revalorisation 2019 des contrats individuels, « un arrêté relatif aux fonds excédentaires en assurance vie publié le 24 décembre 2019 permet aux organismes d’intégrer la PPB qui n’est pas exigible à un horizon inférieur à un an, dans le calcul des fonds propres éligibles en couverture des exigences en capital ».

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Cet arrêté pris en fin d'année dernière fut une véritable bouffée d'oxygène. « Les ratios de solvabilité ne doivent pas décrocher brutalement. Les assureurs doivent afficher une certaine solidité aux yeux du grand public », confie un dirigeant. Cette disposition réglementaire ne relève pas seulement du level playing field visant à mettre les assureurs français et allemands sur un pied d'égalité. Il s'agit également de soutenir les ratios des assureurs vies.

La matelas du marché français est encore confortable avec un ratio de 267% affichés au 31 décembre dernier. Mais avec la crise sanitaire la donne a évolué rapidement en quelques semaines. Les chiffres arrêtés au 30 juin montrent un décrochage de 32 points pour les assureurs vie et mixtes. Et cela prend en compte l’intégration de la PPB. « Elle représente une vingtaine de points de base sur les SCR affichés au 30 juin », précise Laurent Clerc, directeur DEAR à l’ACPR. Autrement dit, hors effet PPB, les SCR afficheraient des chutes drastiques de plus de 50 points. C'est un sacré choc en à peine 6 mois.

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On comprend dès lors que la France se fasse pressante sur une réforme de Solvabilité 2. « Les assureurs ont résisté jusqu’à présent, mais la crise n’est pas terminée. Elle a en tout cas déjà permis de mesurer des points de faiblesse du modèle Solvabilité 2 que nous dénonçons depuis plusieurs années : sa volatilité et sa procyclicité. Lorsque la bourse est en forte baisse, comme au début de la crise, les investisseurs institutionnels que sont les assureurs sont incités à vendre leurs actions pour soutenir leur ratio, alors qu’ils devraient plutôt renforcer leurs positions », déclarait Lionel Corre dans nos colonnes, à la fin du mois de mai. Depuis, un nouveau confinement est vigueur. Et si la bourse a retrouvé des couleurs ces dernières semaines, le Cac 40 a perdu près de 20 points depuis janvier dernier.

Même message du côté de l'ACPR au mois d'octobre dernier. « L’avis de l’Eiopa qui sera transmis à la commission européenne comprendra un certain nombre de mesures. Elles seront équilibrées, mais ne remettront pas en cause les principes de Solvabilité 2. En revanche, il faut pouvoir éliminer ce qui relève de la volatilité et de la procyclicité », déclarait Dominique Laboureix, secrétaire général de l’autorité de contrôle. Le superviseur européen doit en effet transmettre ces guidelines à la fin de l'année. Il reviendra alors à la Commission de trancher. Le lobbying promet d'être intense.

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Le fonds euros opère sa mue

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Les assureurs vie tentent de sortir de l'ornière du fonds euros en modifiant sa structure. Certains proposent des garanties de capital sous les 100% bruts de frais. D'autres transforment plus en profondeur leurs offres. Illustration avec les deux derniers exemples en date.

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Le blocage de la PB version Allianz France

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Au début du mois d’octobre Allianz France a sorti un nouveau produit baptisé Allianz Vie Fidélité. Comme son nom l’indique, il s’agit de rémunérer la fidélité des épargnants. Concrètement, durant les 5 premières années du contrat, la participation aux bénéfices n’est pas versée aux assurés. Elle est automatiquement arbitrée vers des unités de compte et logée dans une garantie de fidélité. « Actuellement, le départ des clients dans les 5 premières années oscille entre 25% et 30% », selon Sylvain Coriat membre du comité de direction d’Allianz France en charge des assurances de personnes.

En cas de rachat total ou partiel avant cette échéance, sauf en cas d’accident de la vie, l’épargnant perd le bénéfice de cette garantie de fidélité. Passé ce délai, elle est rendue aux épargnants et Allianz s’engage à verser une bonification minimale de 10% de cette garantie. Par ailleurs ceux qui restent plus de 5 ans se voient redistribuer les garanties de fidélité des épargnants qui auraient procédé à des rachats avant ces 5 années. « L’objectif est de dynamiser cette PB pendant les 5 années de contrats », explique Françoise Heckmann, directrice produits épargne chez Allianz France.

La commercialisation de ce nouveau contrat sonne le glas des anciens. Le contrat Amev est fermé à la souscription depuis la fin du mois de septembre. Yearling vie bénéficie d’un sursis jusqu’à la fin du mois de décembre prochain. Par ailleurs, « nous sommes en discussion avec Gaipare pour faire évoluer leur contrat », affirme Anne Lamotte, en charge de l’écosystème ‘Mon avenir’ chez Allianz France. De fait, Allianz n’aura plus qu’une seule offre haut de gamme à proposer. Car le ticket d’entrée d’Allianz Vie Fidélité se monte à 30.000 euros.

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L'effet cliquet version France Mutualiste

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La France Mutualiste a ajouté un nouveau profil de gestion à son contrat actépargne 2 baptisée « Avisé 85 » au mois d’octobre dernier. Il permet aux adhérents de la mutuelle de diversifier leur épargne. Ils investissent 60% sur l’actif général et 40% sur le fonds en unités de compte AIS Protect. Il prévoit un effet cliquet sur la garantie du capital. « La gestion porte la garantie à la valeur la plus haute atteinte et limite la baisse en capital à 15% dans le pire des scénarios », explique Dominique Trébuchet, directeur général de la mutuelle . En d’autres termes, si la valeur liquidative du fonds tombe sous les 85%, la garantie est maintenue à 85%. A l’inverse, si cette même valeur dépasse les 85%, la garantie en capital est portée à 85% de la nouvelle valeur liquidative. Puis elle est figée. Pour 110%, ce sera par exemple 93% du capital. Et cette proportion ne pourra plus baisser.

Parallèlement, La mutuelle lance Passerelle gestion quiétude 2031. Ce contrat s’appuie sur les principes de l’eurocroissance. Le capital est en effet garanti à 100% net de frais à horizon 10 ans. Elle est maintenue avant ce délai en cas de décès du souscripteur. Il prévoit des versements investis à 65% sur l’actif général de la France Mutualiste et à 35% sur un fonds en unités de compte LFM Actions Monde. « Nous allons nous appuyer sur les dispositions de la loi Pacte pour favoriser les transferts de nos contrats d’assurance vie en euros vers ce nouveau contrat Passerelle », précise Dominique Trébuchet. A l’issue des 10 ans l’épargne est transférée vers un support en UC. Le contrat Passerelle est réassuré par Munich Re.

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