Plan séquence - Assurance annulation : Après la Covid, le déluge ?

lundi 7 juin 2021
Image de Plan séquence - Assurance annulation : Après la Covid, le déluge ?
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Terrassées par une année 2020 signée du sceau du Coronavirus, les industries culturelles et créatives, ainsi que le monde du sport, entament une difficile reprise. Dans leur sillage, le marché de l’assurance annulation doit se réinventer et composer avec de nouveaux risques et des opérateurs parfois frileux.

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Année noire

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Alors que s’amorce en douceur la reprise de spectacles et autres concerts, la réouverture des cinémas, des théâtres ou des musées ainsi que la tenue de nouvelles compétitions sportives, les industries culturelles et créatives ainsi que le monde du sport ont payé un lourd tribut à l’année 2020, totalement paralysée par l’apparition du coronavirus.

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Par Thierry Gouby

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Avec l’application de l’ensemble des mesures sanitaires, près de 4.500 évènements ont été annulés à travers le pays avec presqu’autant de déclarations de sinistres par les organisateurs de spectacles et autres gérants de lieux culturels… « L’annulation du spectacle polytechnique de la fête des Lacs d’Annecy a par exemple entraîné 5,3M d’euros de frais irrécupérables pour les organisateurs. Mais ce sont les spectacles vivants (concerts, festivals, théâtres), les clubs sportifs ou les tournages qui ont été les plus impactés durant les derniers mois », explique Lionel Ancart, expert d'assurance en risques spéciaux au sein du groupe Stelliant.

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« 2019 avait été l’une des plus belles années pour les industries culturelles et créatives au sens large avec près de 643Mds d’euros de chiffre d’affaires direct et indirect et près de 8 millions d’emplois concernés, explique de son côté Romain Frobert, responsable du pôle Entertainment d’Aon France. La crise du Covid-19, que nous avons vu arriver dès décembre 2019 en Asie, a impacté de 30% le chiffre d’affaires de la culture avec près de 200Md d’euros de perdus pour l’industrie ».

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Côté évènements sportifs, l’année a été toute aussi rude, notamment pour les clubs amateurs et les petites fédérations. Selon un rapport de la Commission Européenne, la baisse de PIB directement lié au sport en France en 2020 est de l’ordre de 8,5Mds d’euros.

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Avec le report de l’Euro 2020 ou des Jeux Olympiques pour lesquels le CIO a indiqué avoir payé une prime d’assurance en cas « d’annulation des Jeux », de près 12,8M de dollars, « seuls les grands évènements sportifs ont été maintenus (Roland-Garros, Tour de France, etc), notamment parce que les droits télévisés ont permis de générer des recettes à la différence des autres sources de revenus que sont la billetterie et les hospitalités », explique Benjamin Buttier, responsable grands comptes - Cinéma / Spectacles / Sports Évènements chez Gras Savoye WTW.

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Le cinéma et l’audiovisuel moins touchés

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Dans cette année morose, l’industrie du cinéma et de l’audiovisuel a elle aussi été touchée mais a fait preuve de résilience malgré les contraintes sanitaires sur les tournages. Ainsi, 239 films ont été produits en 2020, soit le plus bas niveau d’activité depuis 10 ans, selon le CNC (Centre national du cinéma et de l'image animée). Le nombre cumulé des jours de tournage a diminué pour sa part de 30,2% par rapport à 2019, soit le plus bas niveau depuis 20 ans. Face à la crise sanitaire, le CNC et l’État ont notamment mis en place des mesures de soutien dont un fonds d’indemnisation et de garantie à l'issue du premier confinement (à hauteur de 100 millions d'euros), un plan de relance (doté de 12,2M d'euros), suivi d’un plan de soutien d’urgence (de 11,8M d'euros). Le ministère de la Culture a même annoncé fin avril la prolongation jusqu'au 31 août « au moins » des fonds de garantie contre le risque d'interruption des tournages de films et autres émissions de télévision en cas de contamination par le coronavirus.

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« Grâce à cette prorogation, de nombreux et importants projets pourront être sécurisés et voir le jour », a souligné le ministère dans un communiqué. Enfin, plusieurs assureurs mutualistes comme Macif et Matmut, apérités par Aréas Assurances ont accepté d’intervenir au-delà des aides décrites ci-dessus, à concurrence de 10% du capital assuré de l’œuvre concernée avec un maximum de 600.000 euros.

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PORTES "CLAUSES"

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Face à cette situation inédite de par ses causes et son ampleur, le marché de l’assurance a lui vu son activité bouleversée. D’abord, concernant le wording des contrats, le risque pandémique est venu changer la donne. Comme pour la PE sans dommage pour les hôtels, cafés et restaurants, la lecture et l’interprétation de certaines garanties annulation ont donné des sueurs froides aux assureurs. Le cas d’Albingia, pointé du doigt par les organisateurs du Hellfest, n’est qu’un exemple parmi des milliers de cas.

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Techniquement, même si ce type de risque est connu au même titre que les autres épidémies, les conséquences sont telles qu’il constitue désormais un risque systémique pour les assureurs, additionnant fréquence et sévérité des sinistres. Donc, pour le moment en tout cas, il ne peut être autrement qu’exclu des contrats (on ne peut plus assurer contre l’incendie une maison qui a commencé à brûler). Nous verrons par la suite. Nous avions connu les mêmes interrogations en novembre 2015, alors que le risque terroriste devenait alors une exclusion de nos contrats.

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Et Laurent Cellot d’enchaîner de son côté : « le marché de l’assurance annulation est par essence émotionnel et volatile mais il retombe toujours sur ses pattes. Malgré la réduction ou l’arrêt pur et simple des garanties pandémiques, ces dernières reviendront d’ici quelques années au prix fort avec des écarts de tarifs qui pourront aller de 1 à 30 sur la perte d’exploitation par exemple ».

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Si la grande majorité des porteurs de risques présents sur ce segment ont désormais réécrit l’ensemble des polices qui posaient question pour ne plus qu’elles soient sujettes à interprétations, d’autres conséquences sont également apparues, notamment sur les niveaux de primes. Ces derniers auraient ainsi grimpé sur la garantie annulation de 0,4 à 1,4% du montant du risque assuré en moyenne en 2020.

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« Avec le cumul de sinistres entre mars et septembre 2020, assureurs et réassureurs ont aujourd’hui besoin d’apprécier la masse avant de pouvoir se réengager. In fine, cela va entraîner une raréfaction des capitaux et donc une hausse de deux à trois du montant des taux de cotisation », explique ainsi Romain Frobert.

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« Au-delà de l’accélération des sinistres, dont la gestion a beaucoup occupé les courtiers, la pandémie a également eu un impact sur les tarifs. Suivant les risques, les prix ont augmenté jusqu’à 5 fois, avec des contrats qui excluent désormais la pandémie », indique Olivier Porte, directeur affinitaire et risques spéciaux chez Marsh France. Sur ce point, le marché de l’audiovisuel est resté plutôt actif. Malgré des taux variant entre 0,5 et 1% et des majorations de tarifs de l’ordre de 30 % l’année dernière, on retrouve peu à peu une certaine normalité.

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Capacités en berne, assureurs en peine

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L’autre conséquence de cette situation, c’est la frilosité désormais clairement exprimée de certains acteurs qui réduisent leurs expositions sur ce risque annulation avec une réduction des capacités certaine. Ainsi, au niveau des compétition sportives, « les capacités du marché français pour les grands évènements se sont réduites, passant de 50 à 60M d’euros pour certains évènements à 30M après Covid-19. Car les matchs se tiennent le plus souvent à huis clos, les recettes désormais moindres incitent les assureurs à se poser la question de continuer à couvrir les pertes de bénéfices de façon générale », explique pour sa part Laurent Cellot,

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« Sur le risque annulation, certains porteurs de risques impactés à travers des programmes de co-assurance se sont retirés ou en réduit la voilure en revoyant leurs wordings. Alors que le rachat des exclusions pandémies étaient encore possible les années précédentes, ce n’est plus possible aujourd’hui pour 2021. Nul doute que le marché proposera des solutions prochainement pour couvrir cet aléa peut-être dès 2022 », lance Benjamin Buttier, responsable grands comptes - Cinéma / Spectacles / Sports Évènements chez Gras Savoye WTW. Résultat, c’est très clairement le marché anglais (par des filiales établies en France) et les Lloyd’s qui ont pris une longueur d’avance tant sur les dossiers couverts que sur la rapidité de traitement des souscriptions au-delà de 5M d’euros.

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[ État du marché de l’assurance 2020-2021 – Siaci Saint Honoré ] « L’impact de la Covid-19 sur le marché d’assurance Production/Annulation a été immédiat. Dès le développement de la pandémie, les assureurs ont pris des mesures en termes de réduction des capacités et des garanties. De nombreuses compagnies se sont désintéressées ou retirées du marché de l’annulation d’événement, appauvrissant sensiblement les capacités disponibles »

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« Du côté des porteurs de risques, ceux qui étaient là hier le sont encore aujourd’hui. Toutefois, si aucun des grands programmes internationaux de nos clients n’ont été remis en question durant cette période, certains guichets pourraient être amenés à disparaître, notamment parce que les grands réassureurs comme Munich Re ou Swiss Re montrent moins d’appétence pour le risque annulation », pointe Romain Frobert.

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L’ombre de la réassurance

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« Car derrière ces mouvements profonds, l’industrie de la réassurance, elle aussi impactée par les conséquences de la crise du coronavirus a su faire pression sur ces cédantes pour mieux se protéger, notamment sur le risque annulation. Swiss Re avait ainsi affirmé être exposé à hauteur de 250M de dollars (232M d’euros) au risque d’annulation des Jeux Olympiques 2020. En tout, le réassureur suisse aura été impacté à hauteur de 815M de dollars sur l’activité annulation, dont près de la moitié pour sa filiale Swiss Re 'CorSo'. De con côté, Munich re avait également déclaré qu’il couvrait également en assurance annulation les JO de Tokyo, avec « plusieurs centaines de millions d’euros d’exposition », sans être plus précis. Le réassureur allemand a indiqué à l’été dernier avoir été impacté à hauteur de 700M d'euros, en raison de l'annulation ou du report de grands événements.

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Le réassureur Swiss Re a affirmé détenir une part de marché mondiale de 15% pour la couverture annulation d’évènements.

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« Les réassureurs qui sont souvent souscripteurs directs sur ce type de risques, sont ceux qui tiennent encore le marché même si les capacités sont gelées », écrivait dans nos colonnes Gerald Beyrand, le dirigeant de Phenomen. « Concernant les futurs grands évènements sur lesquels travaille aujourd’hui Gras Savoye Willis Towers Watson, la réassurance impose aux assureurs ses conditions dès lors que les capacités engagées sont élevées avec, in fine, un impact sur les tarifs », indique pour sa part Benjamin Buttier.

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« Il est intéressant de constater que certaines cédantes augmentent aujourd’hui leur rétention et travaillent de plus en plus avec leurs propres capacités, réduisant de fait leur dépendance à la réassurance », fait remarquer de son côté Laurent Cellot.

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LA REPRISE SUR DES BASES SAINES

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Dans cette morosité ambiante, la reprise progressive des activités sportives et des industries culturelles et créatives laisse pourtant entrevoir un coin de ciel bleu. Même si une reprise totale n’est pas attendue avant le printemps 2022, « le monde de l’évènementiel est désormais dans les starting-blocks pour les prochaines semaines et cette reprise d’activité progressive va de nouveau entraîner une sinistralité dite 'de croisière'. Cette période a également fait apparaître de nouvelles façons de travailler avec de nouveaux risques à couvrir. La multiplication des lives et du streaming a notamment exacerbé les risques cyber. Par conséquent, les garanties devront sans doute être adaptées et la sinistralité va elle aussi se déplacer », explique Lionel Ancart..

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Alors que la plupart des experts, courtiers et assureurs estiment avoir eux aussi su tirer profit de cette crise, notamment dans l’expérience de la gestion massive de sinistres, certains considèrent que les clients vont davantage avoir besoin de se couvrir lors de la reprise. « Cette situation aura pour vertu d’amener les acteurs du marché à repenser leur modèle. Après presqu’un an et demi de sinistres, de nouvelles façons de communiquer, de filmer ou de se produire vont émerger avec de nouveau besoin d’accompagnement de notre part », lance Romain Frobert.

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Les clients ont compris la nécessité de s’assurer et d’être bien accompagnés pour le faire. Le marché s’étant tari ces derniers mois, la reprise va sans doute poser un problème de concurrence entre courtiers, notamment lors des grands appels d’offres. Pour autant, 2021 s’annonce plus positif et très énergique avec de nouvelles solutions pour épauler les professionnels de l’évènementiel et du sport qui vont de l’avant.

« Il y a sur le marché de l’annulation une redistribution des cartes avec un enjeu pour un courtier comme Marsh de faire face à une reprise d’activité à flux tendu. Au-delà d’un possible effet de rattrapage, nous pensons que les clients seront à la recherche de courtiers spécialisés. Post-crise, je pense que les clients vont davantage se tourner vers l’assurance plutôt que de la délaisser et ils vont avoir besoin de conseils notamment pour trouver une tarification adaptée à leurs budgets », explique pour sa part Olivier Porte qui anticipe une matière assurable qui va sans doute progresser et de nouvelles alternatives assurantielles qui vont se présenter. « Nous abordons cette future période sur une vraie dynamique de croissance et beaucoup d’optimisme ».

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La RC en questions…

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Puisque le marché de l’annulation n’a d’autre choix que de se réinventer et de repartir de l’avant, d’autres questions annexes viennent aujourd’hui interroger les organisateurs d’évènements.

« Nous avons beaucoup parlé de l’annulation ces derniers mois, mais moins de la RC, notamment sous l’angle Covid. La question de la responsabilité des organisateurs notamment lorsqu’ils réunissent plusieurs centaines/milliers de personnes sur un évènement va sans doute se poser plus fortement. Sans doute va-t-il falloir revoir les wordings, renégocier les clauses, car la RC Organisateur est aujourd’hui très compliquée et onéreuse à mettre en place entre assureurs traditionnels et réassureurs », prévient Laurent Cellot.

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