Plan séquence - L'assurance vie revue de fonds en compte

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Depuis la crise des subprimes en 2008, la sphère économique et financière, n’avait pas connu une telle crise. La pandémie du covid-19 a affecté acteurs et marchés, sans exception. Les résultats financiers dévoilés ces dernières semaines montrent toutefois qu'ils ont globalement fait preuve de résilience. Les incertitudes ont incité les ménages à épargner. L’épargne des Français s’élevait à 110 milliards d’euros fin 2020, selon la Banque de France. Cette dernière anticipe une épargne totale de 165 milliards d’euros à la fin de la crise.

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L'avenir des fonds euros en pointillés

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Dans un contexte de crise sanitaire, l’assurance vie, placement préféré des Français, n'a pas été épargnée par le crise. Pour la première fois depuis 2012, elle enregistre plus de prestations versées que de primes reçues sur une année. La décollecte nette des contrats s’élevait à 6,5 milliards d’euros, contre plus de 20 milliards d’euros de collecte nette en 2019. L’encours des contrats s’est établi à 1.789 milliards d’euros en 2020, selon la FFA. Pour rappel, 60% de l’encours des contrats d’assurance vie sont investis dans des actifs d’entreprises en 2020, soit 1.100Mds d’euros redistribué. Un chiffre non négligeable dans le cadre de la relance.

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Par Florian Delambily et Mathilde Castagna

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Dans un environnement de taux toujours plus bas, la gestion des fonds en euros se complexifient pour les assureurs et les promesses faites aux épargnants deviennent difficiles à tenir. Pour apporter une rentabilité et une liquidité du capital, promesses du fond en euros, les assureurs sont poussés à adapter leurs mécanismes du marché qui étaient jusque-là, efficaces.

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Bien que les fonds en unités de compte gagnent en popularité, les fonds en euros restent prisés. Avec une rentabilité en baisse constante depuis le début des années 2000, le fonds en euros représente tout de même 66% des cotisations versées en 2020. Considéré comme une « épargne de précaution », il doit sa place à une garantie de liquidité immédiate et un capital garanti synonymes de projets à court et moyen terme pour les épargnants. Dans un contexte de taux d’intérêt bas, le rendement moyen des contrats en fonds euros ont rapporté, en moyenne, 1,30%, en 2020, contre 1,5% en 2019 selon la FFA. Alors qu’il a longtemps dépassé le rendement des livrets A et autres comptes d’épargne réglementée, le manque de diversification punit aujourd’hui, assureurs et épargnants.

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« Un monomoteur est plus sujet aux tempêtes qu’un bimoteur », Olivier Sentis– directeur général de la Mif. La Mif enregistre un taux de rendement du fonds euros à 1,70% pour l’année 2020, contre 1,95% en 2019. La performance de l’assureur est au-dessus des taux moyens servis par le marché. L’assurance-vie gérée par des mutualistes, avec sa propre gestion d’actifs explique ce rendement

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En gestion d'actifs, il n'existe pas de recette miracle. Pour offrir du rendement aux épargnants, il faut investir dans des placements plus risqués que la dette souveraine. Dominique Trébuchet, directeur général de La France Mutualiste rappelle ainsi qu’une baisse de la garantie du capital n’est pas une baisse de la performance. Au contraire, elle permet une meilleure diversification du portefeuille et améliore potentiellement son rendement.

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Pour assurer le capital des épargnant et surtout une liquidité immédiate, les assureurs se voient limiter dans la diversification de leurs portefeuilles par la réglementation et plus particulièrement Solvabilité 2. Les gestionnaires placent des fonds sur des actifs peu risqués pour garantir un retour de capital. La principale composante du fonds en euros est l’OAT (obligations assimilables du Trésor). En contrepartie le reste du portefeuille est complété par des actifs plus risqués, qui sont quant à eux, sources de rentabilité. .

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Néanmoins, les assureurs font face à une baisse du taux de rendement des OAT. Une baissse amorcée dans les années 80 et qui s'est accentué ces dernières années. d. Car depuis 2019, le taux flirte avec un rendement nul, voire négatif s'agissant de l'OAT à 10 ans., . Le 12 avril 2021, le rendement d’un bon du Trésor était ainsi de -0,475% sur 5 ans et de -0,0310% sur 10 ans. Contraints, les gestionnaires d’actifs investissent à taux zéro ou à perte dans la dette de l’État. Le manque de performance n’a pas pris le dessus sur la sécurité du capital que les bons du Trésor soutiennent. Les assureurs et leurs ratios de solvabilité particulièrement sensibles aux variations de taux accusent le coup. Mais, pour l'heure, ils ont peu d'alternative pour assumer leurs engagements sur le fonds euros pour un coût du capital raisonnable. Et la révision de solvabilité 2 ne devrait pas changer grand chose à l'affaire.

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Réserves vs rendements

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La plupart des assureurs français suivent une tendance identique, à l’exception d'AXA qui affiche une PPB de 1,09% des encours en 2019, selon le rapport de Good Value for Money. Les bancassureurs sont les plus prudents du marché avec un taux PPB de 5,8%, contrairement aux assureurs qui enregistrent 2,9% de provision pour participation aux bénéfices, selon les chiffres de l’ACPR.

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Bien que la scène de l’assurance vie soit aujourd’hui occupée principalement par des contrats à taux variable, les contrats à taux garanti résistent encore. Mais pour combien de temps et à quel prix ?

Pour la première fois en 2019, le taux technique moyen qui s’élevait à 0,41%, taux garanti sur toute la durée du contrat, s’est situé à un niveau supérieur à celui de l’OAT 10 ans, égale à 0,13%. Bien que les contrats à taux garanti se font de plus en plus rares sur le marché, les assureurs en compte toutefois toujours dans leur bilan.

Si elle devait perdurer, cette situation pèserait sur les rendements à long terme. On connait les conséquences des taux d’intérêt bas sur le long terme, notamment avec l’exemple du Japon dans les années 1990. La pays avait connu 8 faillites d'assureurs entre 1997 et 2008. En France, en 2019, lorsque le taux de rendement des OAT est passé en territoire négatif, Arkéa a dû recapitaliser sa filiale assurance vie à hauteur de 540 millions d’euros. Pour éviter une telle situation les assureurs ont pris des mesures. Par exemple, une tarification au moment du dépôt de capital sur les fonds euros, mais aussi une incitation à la diversification en investissant dans des portefeuilles mix composés de fonds euros et d’unités de compte.

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Les nouveaux contours des fonds euros

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Le ministre de l’Économie, Bruno Le Maire, appelait en 2019 à une évolution de l’assurance vie, sans brusquer le fonds en euros et la garantie du capital. Le rendement négatif des obligations d’État, principal composant des fonds euros, incite aujourd’hui les assureurs à en revoir les contours. Arrêter la souscription du fonds en euros n'est pas envisageable. Mais son remaniement devient une question de survie.

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Serge Moreno, directeur marketing et épargne patrimoniale d’AG2R La Mondiale souligne l’importance d’approches diversifiées des fonds euros de la part des assureurs. Le besoin de fonds propres imposé par solvabilité 2 et l’ininterrompue baisse du taux de rendement des obligations d’État, représentent des contraintes réglementaires et financières à prendre en compte pour les acteurs financiers.

Pour pallier les nouvelles contraintes, les assureurs lancent de nouveaux contrats d’assurance vie de fonds en euros garantissant leurs capitaux bruts de frais de gestion. C’est un changement significatif pour ce type d’investissement qui a longtemps garanti un capital net de frais de gestion. Les épargnants doivent alors se pencher sur le taux de frais de gestion annuel, qui leur indiquera la part que l’assureur ne garantit plus. Par exemple, si l’épargnant verse 100 euros sur un contrat d’assurance vie de fonds en euros et que les frais de gestion annuel sont de 0,5%, alors la somme garantie brute à l’épargnant à la fin de l’année sera de 99,5 euros et non plus 100 euros. Pour l'assureur, il s'agit d'alléger la charge en capital que représente l'actif général.

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Si certains rognent sur la garantie du capital, d'autres tentent des approches plus sophistiques. Elles existent depuis longtemps, mais il semble que la persistance de taux bas voire négatifs les remettent en lumière. C'est le cas des fonds à fenêtres. Ici, le capital n'est plus garantit. On dit qu'il est protégé. Cette subtilité s'explique par le fait que la « garantie » du capital, à échéance fixée lors de la souscription, est conditionné à l'orientation des marchés financiers. Si ces derniers baissent en deçà d'une certaine limite généralement (-30%), le capital est exposé à hauteur du montant protégé à la souscription du contrat. Un mécanisme baptisé autocall permet à l'assuré le remboursement de sa mise de départ à des périodes fixées dans son contrat. Si la performance de l'indice boursier qui sert de référence atteint son objectif de performance, alors l'épargnant perçoit une rémunération, ou un capital majoré. Dans ce système, si une partie du capital est protégée comme dans un fonds euros, on se rapproche plus de fonds structurés que de fonds généraux.

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Après les fenêtres, les coussins. Dans le schéma des fonds à coussin, l'assureur conserve une certaine quote-part du placement sur l'actif général. Le reste est investi sur des profils plus dynamiques. Si ces actifs sont orientés à la hausse ou restent stables, une partie des rendements est sécurisé dans l'actif général. En revanche s'ils sont orientés à la baisse, les actifs sont vendus quand bien même le moment ne serait pa opportun. Tout dépend de la tolérance à la perte que s'est fixé l'assureur.

Que ce soit les fonds à coussin ou les fonds à fenêtre, l'espérance de gain est censée être supérieure au rendement de l'actif général, du moins sur le long terme. Ils permettent surtout aux assureurs de se désensibiliser à l'actif général en se positionnant sur des actifs plus dynamiques.

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Pour faire face aux grosses sommes que certains épargnants souhaitent sécuriser, les assureurs peuvent faire le choix de créer un nouveau canton. « On repart from scratch avec les conditions de marché de l'année dernière. L'avantage est que cette solution est moins consommatrice de fonds propres. Nous l'utilisons plutôt comme fonds de débordement », explique Serge Moreno, directeur marketing épargne et clientèle patrimoniale chez AG2R La Mondiale. Cette possibilité est offerte aux seules fins de sécurisation du capital. Le client ne doit pas s'attendre en revanche à une rémunération de son épargne. C'est une sorte de coffre-fort.

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Ramener l'assurance dans les unités de compte

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Les assureurs tentent de rénover le fonds euros en supprimant l'une des 3 contraintes qui a fait son succès, à savoir la garantie, la liquidité ou le rendement. « Sur le marché français, le fonds euros prédomine. Les assurés y sont très attachés. Mais il existe aujourd'hui un réel problème de capital et de rentabilité pour les assureurs. Ces derniers ont donc besoin de désensibiliser leur bilan au fonds euros. C’est pourquoi la priorité est au développement des unités de compte. Elles demandent moins de capital en face », soulève Stéphane Vanadia, managing director, financial solutions and life de Munich Re.

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Pour autant, aujourd'hui, les unités de compte plafonnent entre 35% et 40% de la collecte brute en assurance vie. En premier lieu, parce qu'il existe une aversion aux risques des épargnants français. Et ces derniers mettent au centre de leurs arbitrages, la préservation de leur épargne. Résultat, une part significative a placé tout son capital sur des fonds euros. Il devient alors très difficile de les faire basculer sur des unités de compte. Les assureurs vie ont en effet une obligation réglementaire de devoir de conseil.

En second lieu, ce plafonnement des unités de compte s'explique également par le rôle intrinsèque des assureurs qui est de protéger l'épargne de leurs assurés. « Ils ont également besoin de se distinguer des asset managers. Cela signifie qu'il y a une place pour une offre située entre le fonds euros et le tout unités de compte, poursuit Stéphane Vanadia. Cette offre doit s’appuyer sur l’association d’un moteur de performance combinant euro/unités de compte et de garanties financières apportées directement par l’assureur. Ces garanties assurantielles répondent aux besoins des nombreux épargnants qui ne sont pas prêts à prendre les risques de pertes en capital. Nos solutions de réassurance facilitent la mise en place de telle garanties (garantie du capital à un terme choisi, garanti décès, garanties prévoyance) par nos partenaires assureurs ».

Ces garanties peuvent concerner tout ou partie des sommes investies. Elles peuvent être en cas de vie, mais à une échéance, comme l'entrée en retraite par exemple. S'agissant des garanties, le principe est de couvrir tout ou partie du capital en cas d'accident de la vie par exemple. Concrètement, le capital n'est plus garantie à tout moment. Mais en cas de décès ou d'accident de la vie, l'assuré est certain de retrouver son son capital.

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C'est ce schéma que la France Mutualiste a choisi dans le cadre de son contrat Passerelle. « Nous sommes passés par un réassureur, à savoir Munich Re, pour acheter une couverture à 10 ans et en cas de décès », indique Dominique Trébuchet, directeur général de la France Mutualiste. Passerelle est un contrat d'assurance vie constitué à 65% d'un fonds euros et à 35% d'unités de compte. La souscription ne peut se faire que par transfert de tout ou partie d'un ancien contrat investi en euros vers le profil de gestion Quiétude 2031. Aucun versement complémentaire n'est possible. Au terme du contrat, soit en 2031, l'assuré est certain de récupérer son capital de départ, même si sa valeur a diminué en raison de mauvaises performances des marchés financiers. Les dispositions sont identiques en cas de décès du souscripteur durant cette période. En revanche, en cas de sortie anticipée, l'assuré perd sa garantie en capital.

Pour l'assureur, l'avantage de cette formule est qu'elle permet de s' attaquer au stock de fonds euros et donc de réduire son capital. Mais pour que cela fonctionne, il faut que l'espérance de rendement pour l'assuré soit supérieure à celle du fonds euros tout en intégrant le coût de cette garantie.

« Le traité de réassurance couvre tous les garanties du contrat passerelle et en particulier, nous intervenons donc sur les 35% du fonds en unités de compte LFM Actions Monde volatilité contrôlée », précise Stéphane Vanadia.

Finalement le principe revient à apporter un filet de sécurité sur le capital tout en incitant les Français à intégrer l'assurance vie comme un produit d'épargne longue. Réassureurs et assureurs vie s'alignent alors avec les intérêts des pouvoirs publics qui cherchent à tout prix à orienter l'épargne vers les investissements dans l'économie réelle.

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