Plan séquence - Renouvellements : Entre clients et cédantes, les tensions dures

mercredi 15 février 2023

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Renouvellements : Entre clients et cédantes, les tensions dures

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Les années se suivent et par certains côtés se ressemblent. Cette année encore, les experts des grands risques avaient trouvé des raisons d’espérer que les renouvellements 2023 soient plus confortables que ceux des années précédentes, et attendaient même une stabilisation des tarifs. Le plus souvent, c’est encore raté !

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Par Séverine Charon

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Le coût des sinistre explose, celui de l'assurance suit

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Si les rééquilibrages techniques parfois violemment opérés par les assureurs en 2019, 2020 et 2021 ont porté leur fruit, permettant aux compagnies d’afficher des résultats nettement redressés, désormais, l’inflation et l’explosion des coûts changent encore la donne.

« L’inflation soutenue dans tous les secteurs renchérit le coût des sinistres, parce qu’il faut payer plus pour réparer ou remplacer des équipements ou des bâtiments. Mais en plus, les délais s’allongent à cause des pénuries, et cela pèse aussi sur les coûts. Ces deux tendances viennent déséquilibrer l’équilibre des polices d’assurance », explique Michel Josset, administrateur de l’Amrae.

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La valeur de certains biens et matériaux de construction a augmenté de plusieurs dizaines de pourcents, bien au-delà du taux d’inflation, ce qui a une incidence sur le coût de la remise en état. « Les assureurs sont désormais très attentifs à l’application de l’index qui permet de réévaluer la valeur assurée, mais ils demandent aussi une discipline renforcée sur la bonne évaluation de la valeur assurée », ajoute Michel Josset.

Sur le principe, tout le monde est d’accord, mais dans les faits la question d’une détermination plus fidèle des valeurs assurées a de multiples implications. D’abord, cela représente du travail, surtout quand deux décennies de marché baissier et d’inflation quasi nulle avaient relégué le sujet à l’arrière-plan. « Il faut souligner que le calcul des valeurs assurées, c’est un travail chronophage. Certains grands comptes ont des milliers de lignes à assurer ! Il faut interroger chaque site. Pour ceux qui n’ont jamais fait l’exercice, la marche est haute à franchir », observe Michel Josset.

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Par ailleurs, la valeur assurée revêt autant d’importance parce qu’elle est en lient avec le calcul de la prime. Qui dit valeur assurée en hausse, dit prime en hausse. « Pour l’entreprise assurée, il y a moyen de traiter le sujet. L’inflation existe et personne n’est épargné, mais il y a des possibilités de déterminer plus finement les valeurs assurées. Les cabinets d’expertise préalable proposent de plus en plus des méthodes prédictives qui permettent d’estimer les valeurs assurées d’un site sans nécessairement le faire visiter par un expert », poursuit l'administrateur de l'Amrae.

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Pour la suite, difficile de prédire les nouvelles tendances mais l’inflation et les pénuries continuent de sévir, et le début d’année n’annonce rien de bon…

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Guerre et inflation désarment le maritime

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Comme les autres risques, le transport a connu depuis de covid de multiples secousses. Comme les autres risques, le transport n’a pas été épargné par le retour de l’inflation. Plus que les autres risques, le transport a été ébranlé par le conflit russo-ukrainien. « La guerre en Ukraine a surtout engendré un énorme travail : toutes les équipes compliance ont été sur le pont pour inventorier toutes les expéditions avec un intérêt russe, client, fournisseur, affréteur, nationalité du bateau, pavillon du bateau… », précise Angele Van Pham, marine manager chez MS Amlin Marine.

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« Les assureurs revoient leurs garanties. Le risque de guerre a explosé en 2022, et le conflit en Ukraine a occasionné des sinistres importants, entre des centaines de millions d’euros de stocks en Ukraine, et de nombreux navires bloqués sur la Mer Noire », souligne Mathieu Berrurier directeur général d’Eyssautier-Verlingue.

Mais si la survenance d’un conflit armé a secoué le marché, c’est bien loin d’être la seule source de difficulté. « Ces trois dernières années ont été très perturbées en assurance transport. L’essort du e-commerce a amené une augmentation des demandes de capacités et les compagnies de transport ont du mal à les satisfaire. Il y a eu une pénurie de containers, des encombrements sur les ports, des délais de transport allongés… Cela pose de vraies questions sur l’accumulation de valeurs dans les ports, les aéroports et sur les navires », explique Stéphanie Habasque, responsable de l'équipe transport & logistique chez Marsh France.

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« De notre point de vue, il faut être très vigilant sur les durées et les limites de garantie des programmes dans ce contexte », précise Stéphanie Habasque. Dans le même temps, il a aussi fallu renoncer à des pratiques qui s’étaient installées avec la stabilité des prix. « Le marché a été longtemps baissier, et pour gagner des affaires, les assureurs transport ont souvent intégré à leurs contrats des primes forfaitaires, reconduites d’année en année, alors les tarifications basées sur le chiffre d’affaires prennent en compte la hausse des prix. Dans le contexte actuel, la prime forfaitaire n’est pas tenable. Il y a donc un long travail de revue des portefeuilles qui a dû être engagé, avec des révisions de primes de ce seul fait », explique Angele Van Pham.

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228, 1)" background_color_type__color_color1="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" bg__empty_2="" background_color__effect="" background_color__direction="left-to-right" parallax="" parallax_speed_bg="1.5" parallax_image="" video_bg="" video_bg_url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMJXxhRFO1k" video_bg_parallax="" el_id="" gap="0" disable_element="" settings__tag_1="" viewport_lg="" viewport_md="" viewport_sm="" viewport_xs="" settings__empty_1="" el_class="" version="1" css=""][vc_column extend="false" width="2/3"][vc_single_image image="1538325" img_size="full" alignment="center"][/vc_column][vc_column extend="false" width="1/3"][vc_column_text]

« Les renouvellements ont été difficiles car les assureurs demandent beaucoup plus d’informations qu’auparavant, en matière de perte moyenne, de cartographie des flux (pays de destination / de provenance), en fonction de sanctions économiques notamment, afin d’avoir une vision globale de leurs risques », conclut la marine manager.

Pour l’avenir, « les véritables craintes des assureurs pour les années à venir, ce sont les risques politiques », estime Mathieu Berrurier, qui souligne aussi une évolution du marché avec l’émergence de nouveaux acteurs. « Les captives sont souvent présentées comme une solution, mais pas nécessairement pour les risques MAT. Dans ce métier, il y a besoin de connaissances techniques et de conseil pour souscrire, alors que les capacités ne sont pas pléthoriques. C’est pour cette raison qu’apparaissent sur le marché des agences de souscription appelées maintenant MGA qui rassemblent des compétences et s’intercalent entre les assureurs et les courtiers », explique Mathieu Berrurier.

La lame de fond de l’ESG joue dans les deux camps

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Dans le cadre de la transition énergétique, et avec de nouveaux textes européens (taxonomie, directive CSRD…), de plus en plus, les sujets ESG s’immiscent dans les relations entre assureurs et assurés. Les contraintes liées à l’ESG, « sont de moins en moins négociables », et cela va aller en se renforçant, estime François Beaume, administrateur de l’AMRAE.

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« Le scoring ESG, ce n’est pas une mode. On est au début d’une route structurante. Si une entreprise, même ETI, ne fait rien, cela va devenir très handicapant », estime Frédéric Lucas, référent ESG pour WTW France.

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« Les exigences ne sont toutefois pas les mêmes pour un risque en Allemagne, ou en Amérique Latine par exemple », précise Philippe Maraux. En Europe au moins, les assureurs seront de plus en plus nombreux à interroger les entreprises, qui elles-mêmes vont demander des comptes à leurs assureurs, qui font partie de leurs fournisseurs. « La prise en compte de critères ESG de la part des assureurs est encore très hétérogène. La capacité des entreprises à répondre aux demandes l’est tout autant : une entreprise cotée dispose déjà de nombreux éléments de réponse car elle a des obligations en matière de reporting, alors que pour une plus petite, il faut collecter l’information pour compléter les questionnaires des assureurs », ajoute François Baume.

« Les questionnaires ESG des assureurs se développent, mais leur utilisation reste marginale. Si l’entreprise est mauvaise sur les aspects S et G, il pourrait y avoir des conséquences sur les questions de RC des mandataires sociaux », estime Isabelle Joulin, directrice assurance et actuariat chez Ethifinance.

Chez les clients, les questionnaires ESG et leurs dizaines de pages à noircir sont encore perçus comme une lourdeur de plus dans le processus, d’autant plus que chaque compagnie a sa propre batterie de questions.

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A l’inverse, intégrer l’ESG pour choisir son assureur sera aussi à terme une réalité. « En tant que fournisseur, MS Amlin peut montrer patte blanche pour ce qui concerne les aspects sociaux et gouvernance. Nous sommes en train de mener une revue des critères environnementaux, qui est complexe : il faut identifier les pollueurs, sachant que nous assurons les marchandises, ainsi que les corps de navire », explique Angele Van Pham MS Amlin.

« Aujourd’hui, les risk managers ne sont pas très nombreux à intégrer l’ESG dans leurs critères de sélection des assureurs, d’autant plus que le marché reste compliqué et les capacités souvent insuffisantes sur certaines lignes », nuance toutefois François Baume.

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« En matière d’assurance, le prix reste la variable de choix majeure. Les aspects d’ESG commencent à être pris en compte dans la réassurance. Il y a désormais une attitude différente en un réassureur européen et un réassureur américain », confirme Xavier Leroy, en charge du conseil chez Ethifinance, qui ajoute : « Les assureurs commencent à s’interroger sur leur réputation. Nous avons d’ailleurs lancé Ethimonitor, un service sur l’analyse des controverses de leurs clients ».

« Le risk management est pleinement concerné par l’ESG parce que la part du reporting extra financier est de plus en plus importante. Le risk manager va notamment devoir contribuer sur le risque climatique : quelle est la valeur d’un actif qui n’est plus assurable par exemple ? Il va donc devoir quantifier des scénarios catastrophiques pour nourrir le reporting extra financier », estime Michel Josset.

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Si les critères environnementaux ne sont pas encore souvent intégrés, les aspects sociaux et gouvernance commence à déterminer l’intensité de certains risques. « On perçoit une tendance sur la question de la RC des mandataires sociaux. Les assureurs ne savent pas quantifier l’ESG et n’ont pas encore de scoring, et il n’y a pas encore de sanction », indique Frédéric Lucas.

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