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Renouvellements 2022, l'orage continue de gronder

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Après un retournement de marché de 2019 et les fortes hausses tarifaires de 2020, les entreprises ont un temps cru revenir à des négociations plus sereines pour les contrats 2022. La douche a été froide !

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Par Séverine Charon

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L’attention des assureurs ne se relâche pas, la tension sur le marché ne retombe pas

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La douche a été froide ! Tarifs et rétentions en hausse, capacités en baisse : l’exercice de renouvellements a encore été laborieux et parfois encore plus long et douloureux que les deux années précédentes.

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« L’échéance du 1er janvier reste majoritaire et concerne encore 60% des affaires. En revanche, les contrats de durée (long terme agreement) ont disparu du marché, et la période de renouvellement s’est notablement allongée, commençant parfois en juin ou juillet, et se terminant vraiment le 31 décembre. Les clients ont été échaudés en 2020 par les hausses tarifaires. Ils ont eu le sentiment d’être mis devant le fait accompli et du coup ils ont demandé à leur courtier cette année de retourner beaucoup plus de pierres… Mais au final, il y a eu peu de changements d’assureurs ! », explique Richard Deguette, directeur général de Liberty Specialty Markets.

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N'en déplaise aux entreprises habituées à vivre pendant presque deux décennies dans un marché baissier, l’époque a changé et le marché est resté très dur. « Nous avons désormais des exigences beaucoup plus fortes sur l’information afférente aux risques que nos clients partagent avec nous… Nous demandons beaucoup de choses, mais pas tous nécessairement la même chose », précise Florence Louppe, ancienne directrice générale de HDI Global France qui a rejoint Diot-Siaci depuis.

Le manque d’harmonisation est un constat que partage, critique, Michel Josset, président de la commission dommages aux biens de l’Amrae, qui pointe à la fois « le manque de maturité de l’industrie de l’assurance dans la gestion des renouvellements sans questionnaires normalisés ,où les négociations se terminent entre la bûche et le réveillon » et « le fait qu’on en soit encore à l’âge de pierre de la digitalisation, où clients et courtiers passent beaucoup de temps à compiler et recouper les informations ».

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L’autre sujet, c’est le manque de capacités. « Je ne crois pas que le marché en manque, mais plutôt que les grands acteurs ne les proposent plus sans rendre de précautions et sans être regardants sur les textes, les garanties et l’exposition. Ce qui est souscrit fait désormais l’objet d’études techniques et de prudence », explique Véronique Perottino, directrice générale de MS Amlin, qui ajoute : « tous les assureurs ont une démarche de meilleure répartition des risques. Il faut plus de clients pour autant de capacité ». Ce qui d’ailleurs a bénéficié a un assureur comme MS Amlin qui a pu se développer « sans dégrader son modèle de souscription ». En creux, les preneurs de risques admettent qu’ils ont trop longtemps été trop laxistes. Ce temps-là semble révolu. La gestion de l’année 2020 a aussi laissé des traces.

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« L’assurance c’est un commerce basé sur la confiance. Après la signature du contrat, il faut être pertinent sur la gestion de sinistre quand il survient. J’ai la fierté de dire qu’en 2020 que sur notre branche Risques Spéciaux, nous avons eu 2000 annulations d’événement contre 5 ou 6 une année ordinaire. Après la déclaration de sinistre, à chaque fois, nous avons contacté le courtier et le client. Comme les autres assureurs, nous avions des exclusions dans des polices que personne n’avait lues depuis longtemps. Comme les autres, nous avions des polices plus ou moins bien écrites. Alors nous avons ouvert un dialogue, trouvé un accord avec chacun de nos clients et à la fin de l’année, tous les dossiers étaient clos. Pas une fois nous ne sommes allés au tribunal ou n’avons eu de presse défavorable. Je pense que nous sommes peu nombreux à pouvoir le dire », observe Richard Deguettes.

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Alors, faut-il se donner simplement un peu de temps, et est-il légitime d’espérer une normalisation des processus et une amélioration des conditions de négociations en 2022 ? Pas si sûr, car les assureurs campent sur leurs positions, et certains soulignent déjà que certains risques, parfois encore négligés par les risk managers, vont être désormais scrutés les assureurs. « Dans l’année qui vient, la réflexion sur l’exposition aux catastrophes naturelles va gagner en intensité », prédit ainsi Florence Louppe.

« Les risques comme le cyber et les risques climatiques évoluent plus vite que jamais. On voit venir des poches d’inassurabilité et on ne les traite pas. Plus il y en aura, plus se posera la question de la place de l’assurance, qui doit retrouver davantage de légitimité », conclut Véronique Perottino.

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Deux questions à Franck Le Vallois, directeur général de France Assureurs

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Notre étude climat d’octobre 2021 montre que, sur les 30 prochaines années, le montant des sinistres climatiques pourrait quasiment doubler par rapport aux 30 précédentes. Dans ce contexte, les assureurs n’ont pas d’autres choix que d’adopter une vision prospective et d’abandonner l’approche qui a pu consister par le passé à analyser les risques en regardant dans le rétroviseur. L’exposition à certains risques augmente tendanciellement, il est logique que les conditions contractuelles s’ajustent !

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En matière d’incendie, tout le monde comprend bien la différence entre assurer un entrepôt de liquides inflammables doté de sprinklers et le même entrepôt sans moyens de protection… Selon le baromètre AMRAE, une proportion significative de risk managers n’ont pas intégré les catastrophes naturelles dans leur plan de continuité d’activité. Pour les PME, 60 à 70 % des chefs d’entreprise ne sensibilisent pas leurs salariés au risque cyber selon une enquête de la CPME… La prévention au sein de l’entreprise est un facteur clé pour réunir les conditions d’assurabilité. La maîtrise de son exposition aux risques, c’est d’abord le sujet de l’entreprise, et vouloir opposer l’assureur à l’entreprise est stérile, mais on ne peut pas exiger des assureurs de tout couvrir, quelles que soient les conditions.

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Un marché désormais hanté par une créature maléfique : le referal

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Alors que les négociations sont difficiles depuis plusieurs années, un convive invisible s’est invité à table : le referal. Pour l’assureur, il fait partie de la procédure. Pour le client, c’est un démon inconnu et maléfique. « Il y a un problème dans le processus de décision : on ne sait pas où se trouve l’incontournable mais invisible 'referal'. Sur le marché parisien, il y avait auparavant des responsables avec qui discuter. Ce temps-là est révolu », regrette Michel Josset.

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« Les referals sont souvent très éloignés des clients et cela étire les chaînes de décision. Il y a aussi parfois une application bête et méchante d’une grille d’analyse, qui ne différencie pas les clients vertueux des clients qui le sont moins », pointe Laurent Giordani.

« Les courtiers veulent parler à ceux qui décident. Chez Liberty, on a joué sur la simplicité et la capacité à décider en local, et à expliquer nos appétits. La clarté fait la différence. Il faut aussi reconnaître que ce n’est pas difficile de bien faire si on ne fait pas tout ! A mon avis la proposition d’assureur généraliste a vécu », estime le spécialiste Richard Deguettes.

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« Les assureurs ont encore une mauvaise connaissance des opérations de leurs clients, avec une vision très naïve de la manière dont ça se passe. Ils ont encore une peur rétrospective des dernières années de soft market, d’où le mouvement brutal de serrage de vis. Il y a un sujet de circuit de décision et de grilles de décisions qui ne sont pas compris par le marché. Le fossé se creuse de plus en plus », conclut Laurent Giordani.

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version="1"][vc_single_image image="1486704" img_size="full" alignment="center"][vc_customtyping]

Des prix qui montent, qui montent

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« Cela fait trois ans qu’on dit aux clients qu’on revient à la technique. Ils finissent par avoir du mal à comprendre ces hausses, quand ils voient les résultats globaux des assureurs qui sont plutôt bons et que les supposés mauvais résultats des grands risques ne sont pas objectivés par des chiffres », résume en quelques mots Philippe Maraux, directeur chez Marsch.

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Pour autant, aucun assureur ne promet d’accalmie. « On est encore dans un épisode de redressement tarifaire, où l’équilibre technique entre primes perçues, couvertures et coût des sinistres appelle une hausse des prix, mais en plus, il y a désormais une interconnexion importante des risques, prise en compte par la plupart des assureurs », défend Julien Guénot.

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Il y a une tendance à surveiller sur la sinistralité en dommages, à la fois en raison de l’inflation des coûts et matériaux de réparation et du niveau des pertes d’exploitation : une rupture d’approvisionnement sur une pièce de rechange peut immobiliser un outil de production pour longtemps. En plus, le retour de l’inflation est invoqué par plusieurs assureurs : la valse des étiquettes va renchérir le coût des sinistres matériels, et donc des tarifs.

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« Comme sur tout marché, le déséquilibre entre l’offre et la demande, dû au manque de capacités, tend encore à faire augmenter les prix », ajoute, lucide, Richard Deguettes. Une lueur d’espoir est amenée par Florence Tondu Mélique, présidente-directrice générale de Zurich France qui estime que « Les conditions de marché redeviennent plus équilibrées, pouvant inciter de nouveaux opérateurs à déployer des capacités pour bénéficier de ce retournement. »

Le marché a toujours été cyclique, avec toujours ce phénomène de hausse et de baisse des tarifs et des capacités, d’entrée et de sortie des acteurs.

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Le risque cyber, la nouvelle pandémie ?

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S’il est un risque qu’il a parfois été impossible d’assurer, cette année, c’est celui-là.

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Les difficultés ressenties par les entreprises pour s’assurer sur le cyber s’expliquent par des capacités globalement réduites. A ceci, des raisons simples. Jean Rondard, directeur CRB France chez WTW rappelle qu’il y a un gros sinistre par mois, et que certains assureurs encaissent trois fois plus de pertes que de primes.

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Les preneurs de risques qui sont resté ont par ailleurs redécouvert les vertus de la diversification. Ils ne veulent surtout pas mettre tous leurs œufs dans le même panier. « La fréquence est élevée, mais l’intensité aussi peut l’être. C’est l’illustration de nos dépendances aux réseaux sociaux et au numérique et de notre modèle de société. Avec le cyber, il y a un risque sériel qui pourrait toucher le marché. Si l’assurance joue, cela va la mettre à plat. Si elle ne joue pas, à quoi sert l’assurance ? », s’interroge Véronique Perottino. Et avec la pandémie, le télétravail a concouru à ouvrir les systèmes d’information et multiplié les points d’entrée. « Les entreprises sont en vulnérabilité sur ce sujet », souligne Jean Rondard.

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Il y a des pistes de réflexion. « Il y a trois ou quatre ans, les banques avaient des taux de prime plus élevés que les sociétés commerciales. Aujourd’hui cela s’est inversé, mais les premières, très exposées, soumises à une réglementation financière stricte et fortement dépendantes de leur système informatique, ont davantage travaillé sur la prévention », indique Philippe Maraux. Bref, ici aussi la prévention a des vertus. Il faut aussi savoir prendre son destin en main. « Il faut savoir ce que le preneur de risques a besoin, d’entendre. Nous avons organisé des road shows sur le seul sujet du risque cyber pour certains clients. A chaque fois, cela a donné de bons résultats : en une heure 30, les assureurs disposent de tous les éléments pour juger si la demande s’inscrit dans leur politique de souscription », explique Jean Rondard.

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« C’est une matière difficile à placer, on ne peut pas rester les bras croisés : nous sommes des animateurs de place de marché ! Il ne faut pas que la branche cyber meure. Les entreprises en ont besoin, mais les assureurs aussi. Ils ne peuvent pas se tenir à l’écart de ce segment qui sera le moteur de leur croissance et de leur business », ajoute Jean Rondard. Effectivement, certains assureurs veulent tenir bon. « En dépit d’une sinistralité forte et en augmentation, nous accompagnons nos clients et en couvrons de nouveaux, ce qui nécessite de travailler en amont sur la prévention, et en aval sur la gestion des incidents », précise ainsi Florence Tondu Mélique.

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La France, le désert des captives

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Capacités en baisse, rétention et tarifs en hausse… « Aujourd’hui, les risques ont tellement changé qu’on n’assure plus qu’une part plus modeste des risques », observe Véronique Perottino. D’où les captives, une solution rêvée ? En tout cas, les risk managers et leurs courtiers ont bien cru en 2021 que le Trésor allait leur offrir un cadeau, avec la mise en place de captives autorisées à étaler dans le temps leurs provisions. Mais là aussi, les espoirs ont été douchés. Alors les espérances demeurent, mais les assureurs surveillent…

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« Les captives sont revenues à l’ordre du jour parce qu’il y a moins d’assurance disponible : elles permettent d’organiser et de contrôler l’autoassurance », résume Michel Josset. « Nous sommes convaincus que le texte sur les captives à la française verra le jour. Cela débouchera sûrement en fin d’année. Tous les grands groupes, mais aussi désormais les ETI, ont une stratégie d’autoassurance assumée », estime Cyril Brand, directeur commercial chez Marsch.

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Alors, fini le désert des captives ? Individuellement, aucun assureur n’y formule d’objection. « Il faut se féliciter de l’attention portée aux captives. La finalité du projet est de disposer d’un outil clef de risk management qui ne servira pas seulement aux très grandes entreprises mais à toutes les ETI. Augmenter ses capacités de rétention via une captive est un gage de bonne gestion des risques et optimise l’accompagnement des assureurs traditionnels », souligne ainsi Julien Guénot. « La mise en place de captives contribue à renforcer la prévention », confirme Florence Louppe.

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