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Plan séquence - Risque climatique : Les assureurs s’attirent les foudres des entreprises

jeudi 15 février 2024

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Risque climatique : les assureurs s’attirent les foudres des entreprises

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Depuis le retournement du marché, la saison des renouvellements donnent lieu à des négociations tendues entre assureurs et entreprises. Elles sont particulièrement exacerbées sur le risque climatique.

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Par Séverine Charon

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Coût des sinistres climatiques : dépression sur les capacités ?

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« L’assurance est encore considérée comme une "commodité" et donc le prix est primordial », estime Michel Geets, directeur de la souscription chez HDI Global SE France. Cette année ne déroge pas à la règle : les prix paraissent toujours élevés aux clients mais en plus, les réponses apportées sur la couverture du risque climatique paraissent inadaptées, et les capacités insuffisantes. « Il y a une crise de l’offre d’assurance, voire des risques d’inassurabilité des actifs très exposés, et un désalignement entre ce que les assureurs proposent et ce que les entreprises attendent en matière de données et de prévention », juge Michel Josset, responsable assurances et immobilier chez Faurecia et président de la commission prévention et dommages de l’AMRAE.

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« Faire appréhender aux dirigeants le véritable coût du risque est le nerf de la guerre pour le risk management. En marché baissier, cela n’a pas toujours été respecté. Si l’on fait abstraction des dernières années, le coût du transfert de risque a connu une baisse continue », répond Paolo Ribotta, CEO de Zurich France.

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Les assureurs sont en effet unanimes : le risque climatique coûte cher, de plus en plus cher. « En 2023, le coût des catastrophes naturelles pour l’assurance avoisine encore les 100 milliards de dollars au niveau mondial, ce qui est en ligne avec la moyenne des cinq dernières années, alors qu’il n’y a pas eu une catastrophe d’intensité particulière comme un ouragan très dévastateur aux Etats-Unis. C’est un saut de moyenne important par rapport aux 80 milliards de dollars des cinq années précédentes. Il y a par ailleurs une montée des périls secondaires face auxquels les assureurs se disciplinent pour allouer des capacités, mais aussi modéliser et tarifer ces risques », explique Laurent Richeme, responsable dommages, construction et énergie Asie Pacifique & Europe chez Axa XL.

La tendance à la baisses des capacités, invoquées par les entreprises n’est pas confirmée par les assureurs.[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image="1587595" img_size="full" alignment="center" onclick="custom_link" img_link_target="_blank" link="https://www.newsassurancespro.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/quote_magny_sandra2.jpg"][vc_column_text]

« A l’occasion des renouvellements pour 2024, nous n’avons pas observé de manque de capacités. Beaucoup d’affaires ont même été sursouscrites », confirme Florence Tondu Melique, CEO de WTW France, qui ajoute : « En termes de tarifs, le marché est hétérogène, mais nous sentons que le point d’inflexion est atteint ou en passe de l’être ». Les capacités sont là, mais effectivement, les prix restent élevés, à un niveau jugé trop haut par les acheteurs.

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Tarifer le risque climatique, les assureurs dans le brouillard

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Oui, les dégâts climatiques coûtent cher aux assureurs, et de plus en plus souvent, des périls à l’ampleur inattendues les amène à revoir brutalement leurs propositions. « En 2022, les orages de grêle et leurs conséquences ont coûté 5,5 milliards d’euros aux assureurs. De tels évènements exceptionnels sont de nature à modifier les modèles d’analyse de risques utilisés par les assureurs et les réassureurs », indique Franck Le Vallois, directeur général de France Assureurs.

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« Il est de plus en plus difficile d’appréhender le risque. Les épisodes de grêle en France en 2022 et d’inondations survenus en Allemagne et en Belgique en 2021 n’étaient pas dans les modèles, confirme Philippe Maraux Marsh. D’une manière générale, les clients ne mettent pas en doute l’évolution du risque climatique, mais cherchent à appréhender leurs potentielles répercussions sur les actifs et les activités ».

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Malheureusement, la modélisation est une mathématique ardue et complexe. « Les modèles stochastiques des assureurs sont basés sur quatre principes: la qualité des données d’entrée, l’analyse de la vulnérabilité des actifs assurés, la prise en compte très limitée à ce jour des périls secondaires, et le poids de l’historique dans la modélisation », relève Maxime Ambourg, directeur innovation et développement commercial chez Axa XL Risk Consulting. Les modèles sont complexes, et il faut les nourrir de données que les clients eux-mêmes ont du mal à collecter.

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La vulnérabilité d’un site face à un péril primaire se modélise habituellement à partir de la classe de construction, du type d’occupation, du nombre d’étages et de l’année de construction. Lorsqu’une entreprise possède des centaines d’actifs, disposer de données fiables est ardu. Lorsque les modélisations s’affinent, une vingtaine de critères deviennent nécessaires, et les entreprises ne peuvent pas forcément les fournir. « Les compagnies affirment que leurs tarifications sont issues de modélisations poussées, et pourtant les cotations restent très différentes entre elles. On peut se questionner sur l’exactitude des modélisations », note toutefois Philippe Maraux.

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Les visites de risque climatique, la nouvelle météo de l’exposition des actifs

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La prévention, les assureurs en parlent de longue date. Mais aujourd’hui, il ne s’agit plus de se prémunir seulement du feu, mais aussi de l’air et de l’eau.

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« Historiquement, les visites de risque se focalisaient sur le risque incendie. Aujourd’hui, le risque lié aux évènements naturels est de plus en plus important, et il est donc nécessaire que nous renforcions notre niveau d’analyse et d’évaluation des risques lié aux événements naturels en collaboration avec les risk managers », estime Denis Stasinski. Les choses ne se feront pas d’un claquement de doigt. Car il est notamment question d’argent.

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« Modifier la nature des visites de risque, c’est aussi une question de priorité et de budget au sein des entreprises. Les risk managers sont-ils prêts à allouer une partie de leur budget à ces visites et aux plans d’actions qui en découlent ? », interroge Danaëlle Le Mao, responsable Ingénierie prévention chez Zurich France. Par ailleurs, trop peu d’entreprises prendraient en compte l’évolution potentielle des évènements climatiques pour faire le choix de l’implantation d’un nouveau site. Des critères comme le coût du terrain et les avantages fiscaux restent souvent les premiers critères de décision. Le risk manager est informé en bout de chaîne, et il est alors chargé de trouver une solution d’assurance, et le preneur de risque tiendra lui compte de critères d’exposition aux risques climatiques.

Le raz-de-marée d’informations extra-financières de la CSRD va-t-il noyer les assureurs ?

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En matière d’analyse et de divulgation des risques, la directive européenne Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) affectera-t-elle les relations avec les assureurs ? Les avis sont encore partagés. Applicable depuis le 1er janvier, la CSRD fixe de nouvelles obligations de reporting notamment sur l’exposition et l’ adaptation de l’entreprise au changement climatique.

« La CSRD est une évolution du reporting, pas une injonction de faire. Elle va avant tout conduire les entreprises concernées à mieux connaître leurs impacts et leurs risques, estime Franck Le Vallois. Cela peut être une incitation à réduire l’impact et les risques environnementaux auxquels les entreprises sont exposées. Elle va nourrir le dialogue entre l’assureur et son assuré. En effet, une offre d’assurance s’accompagne forcément de conseils ».

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Un point de vue que nuance Etienne de Varax : « La CSRD va nous donner accès à une gamme d’informations que nous n’avons pas examinées jusqu’alors. C’est une nouvelle opportunité de parler plus et mieux avec nos clients ». [/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image="1587515" img_size="full" alignment="center"][vc_column_text]

Du côté des assureurs aussi, la CSRD pourra faire évoluer les approches, mais il faudra du temps. « Nous travaillons à intégrer les critères ESG dans notre politique de souscription en commençant par le E (critères environnementaux).Cette volonté exige un degré de maturité supplémentaire et nous sommes conscients que certains clients pourraient percevoir que leurs efforts ne sont pas encore assez pris en compte », détaille Laurent Richeme. Florence Tondu-Mélique tient toutefois à nuancer la portée de ce texte, rappelant que « la régulation est un facteur d’accélération, mais fondamentalement les assureurs portent le risque sur leur bilan, au-delà des contraintes qu’on leur impose ».

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Le risque de cumul, un nouveau coup de tonnerre dans le secteur

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Les assureurs sont-ils devenus trop frileux ? Du côté des risk managers, la question du cumul des risques, souvent invoquée par les assureurs comme frein à la souscription, est difficile à comprendre. Pourquoi les compagnies freinent-elles devant les possibilités de développement commercial ? La réponse des assureurs est simple : c’est la raison qui les y oblige.

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« Le risque de cumul est crucial car il permet à l’assureur de maîtriser son exposition, et de vérifier que ses engagements à indemniser pourront toujours être tenus », explique Laurent Richeme. Les épisodes de grêles de 2022 ont rappelé aux compagnies que ce risque ne devait pas être perdu de vue. « Le risque de cumul n’est pas un sujet récent, c’est une réalité connue pour les périls primaires tels que les ouragans et les inondations. Il frappe désormais les périls secondaires comme la grêle, en témoignent les événements de juin 2022 », rappelle en effet Florence Tondu-Mélique.

« Les assureurs ont un travail considérable à mener sur le risque de cumul, et en même temps les clients ont du mal admettre cette nouvelle limite invoquée lors de souscriptions, sans doute parce dans un passé récent, ce risque était moins appréhendé et les capacités accordées sans en tenir compte », ajoute Sandra Magny.

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Le sujet devient brûlant pour une raison très simple : les assureurs n’ont pas les reins assez solides pour tout assumer. « La profondeur du marché de l’assurance se mesure en dizaines de milliards quand les catastrophes naturelles se chiffrent en centaines de milliards. Il y a un vrai sujet de résilience des assureurs face à ces périls », résume Michel Geets.

En matière de cumul, les possibilités de couverture sur la chaîne d’approvisionnement illustre l’évolution des attitudes des assureurs. « Ce risque a augmenté de manière exponentielle en fréquence et en intensité. On peut comprendre la tendance à la prudence des assureurs », juge Florence Tondu-Mélique.

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« Assurer toute une chaîne d’approvisionnement, c’est effectivement trop complexe. Les pratiques d’il y a une dizaine d’années, où le client pouvait s’assurer en fournissant les noms de plusieurs centaines de fournisseurs, n’étaient pas très sérieuses. Mais aujourd’hui, sur le risque lié à des fournisseurs dénommés dont dépend le chiffre d’affaires du client, les assureurs pourraient être plus présents avec une bonne analyse du risque », estime toutefois Philippe Maraux.

« L’effet cumul a été très prégnant. La régionalisation des industries est favorable à un resserrement de la chaîne d’approvisionnement et à terme à une meilleur maitrise de la supply chain, promet Denis Stasinski. Plus le client partage d’informations sur sa supply chain, plus l’assureur a une meilleure visibilité sur le transfert de risque et plus l’assureur est disposé à assumer un risque plus élevé car beaucoup mieux analysé ». Comme pour l’exposition des actifs aux risques climatiques, les assureurs demandent désormais aux entreprises un gros travail préalable, qui consiste à connaître, analyser et prévenir les risques avant d’envisager de les couvrir.

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