Plan séquence - Sur le climat, les assureurs se chauffent

mercredi 3 novembre 2021
Image de Plan séquence - Sur le climat, les assureurs se chauffent
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Le climat, une préoccupation de tous

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La lutte contre le réchauffement climatique sera la crise du siècle contre laquelle les assureurs ont décidé de s'unir. Par le biais d'une alliance créée en juillet dernier - la NZIA - assureurs et réassureurs s'engagent afin de définir ensemble un cadre grâce auquel les activités assurantielles atteignent un niveau net zéro à l'horizon 2050. 

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Par Mathilde Castagna

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La conférence mondiale pour le climat se réunit du 31 octobre au 12 novembre à Glasgow afin d’établir les prochaines étapes de la course contre le réchauffement climatique. Les nouvelles mesures devraient se rapprocher de la trajectoire de 1,5°C définie par l’accord de Paris de 2015 alors que l’ONU a annoncé dans son rapport publié début septembre, que les engagements actuels pourraient mener à un réchauffement climatique de 2,7°C dès la fin du siècle.

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De leurs côtés, l’Union européenne a affiné son approche avec le programme « Fit for 55 », les États-Unis et l’administration Biden sont de retour au sein des signataires des accords de Paris et la Chine a annoncé son objectif net zéro à horizon 2060. En revanche, le rapport du Giec, publié au courant de l’été a, quant à lui, été qualifié de « code rouge pour l’humanité » par le secrétaire général de l'ONU, Antonio Guterres.

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Au-delà du constat scientifique, la hausse des températures, les saisons qui n’en sont plus, les glaciers qui fondent et s’effondrent aux côtés d’une faune et flore à bout de souffle sont des signes révélateurs pour des humains encore sceptiques. Avant que l’Homme paie cette négligence continue, les premiers à couvrir de telles catastrophes - conséquence du dérèglement climatique - sont les assureurs. Cependant, que fait le secteur pour limiter les dégâts ?

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Le secteur de l’assurance se souvient de la phrase prononcée par Henri de Castries, directeur général d’Axa au moment de la Cop 21 en 2015, berceau de l’accord de Paris : « Un monde plus chaud de 4 degrés sera impossible à assurer ». Tranchant et réaliste, l’ancien patron de l'assureur français ne pensait pas si bien dire. Depuis, le monde s’est réchauffé, et plus vite que prévu. En revanche, à l’ouverture de la Cop26, six ans plus tard, le secteur compte désormais un représentant, la Net-Zero Insurance Alliance (NZIA). Cette nouvelle alliance composée de neuf assureurs et réassureurs, dont deux Français, est désormais prête à ouvrir la voie et surmonter les défis afin de montrer la direction au secteur tout entier.

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Doucement mais surement

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Axa président ! 

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C’est à l’occasion de la Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero en avril dernier que Thomas Buberl, directeur général d'Axa, a annoncé le lancement d’une nouvelle alliance afin de combler « une lacune importante ».

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La NZIA était née. Sur la ligne de départ, sept assureurs et réassureurs engagés. En revanche, il faudra attendre quelques mois pour que le top départ soit donné. En juillet 2021, l’alliance est une réalité, à huit cette fois. Scor, Allianz, Aviva, Generali, Munich Re, Swiss Re, Zurich Insurance Group et Axa en qualité de président. C’est lors du sommet sur le climat à Venise que la déclaration d’engagement de la NZIA est publiée. « C’était un moment solennel important, c’est un engagement sans précédent qui est de dire que les membres de la NZIA s’engagent à atteindre la neutralité en émissions nettes de gaz à effet de serre sur les portefeuilles d’assurance d’ici 2050 en ligne avec les accords de Paris », a indiqué Renaud Guidée, président de la NZIA et directeur des risques du groupe AXA.

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« La création de la Net Zero Insurance Alliance (NZIA) est clairement le produit du succès de l’alliance des investisseurs en 2019. Le changement climatique a un impact matériel sur notre activité. L’essence même de l’assurance est d’assurer/d’être présent après le passage d’un ouragan ou d’une catastrophe naturelle, donc l’industrie a une compréhension commune et mature de ce sujet », précise Paul Nunn, Head of ESG et Conseiller Senior pour Scor. Depuis, l’alliance compte un nouvel arrivant. En effet, le Lloyd’s of London a annoncé qu’il rejoignait la Net Zero Insurance Alliance le 28 octobre, soit trois jours avant le début de la Cop26.

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L’engagement consiste donc à faire passer toutes les activités assurantielles à un niveau net zéro d’ici 2050. Le champ d'application n'est pas seulement l'émission incorporée assurée sous le portefeuille des assureurs, mais il couvre également les émissions opérationnelles, qui se présentent souvent comme les plus complexes. L’un des principaux défis auquel s’apprête à faire face l’alliance est la définition d’un cadre de mesure et de suivi. Et pour cela, les assureurs et réassureurs auront un total de 18 mois après la signature afin de concevoir et publier un protocole de fixation des objectifs dans le but de créer une base de référence.

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Une prise de conscience collective  

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Prise de vitesse et coût des catastrophes naturelles sur la première partie de l'année 2021

[/vc_column_text][vc_customtimeline_start custom_bg_color="rgba(255,255,255,0.01)" custom_txt_color="#ffffff" custom_bg_color_event="#000000"][vc_customtimeline custom_timeline_date="10 mars 2021 - Plan d'action européen pour le climat"]Régulation SFDR : Les assureurs prennent en compte des critères ESG dans leurs stratégies d'investissement[/vc_customtimeline][vc_customtimeline custom_timeline_date="21 avril 2021 - Insure Our Future interpelle le secteur"]Insure Our Future envoie une lettre de demande aux présidents directeurs généraux du secteur de la réassurance pour les informer sur les actions à mettre en place dans la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique.[/vc_customtimeline][vc_customtimeline custom_timeline_date="26 avril 2021 - Annonce de la création d'une alliance"]Lors de la Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, Thomas Buberl, directeur général d'Axa annonce la création d'une alliance internationale entre assureurs et réassureurs afin de lutter contre le changement climatique. Axa en sera la président.[/vc_customtimeline][vc_customtimeline custom_timeline_date="11 juillet 2021 - Officialisation et première réunion"]Les 8 membres de la NZIA, dont Axa et Scor, se réunissent pour la première fois et officialisent leur alliance.[/vc_customtimeline][vc_customtimeline_end][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row extend="false" rtl_reverse="" css_animation="" bg_type="bg_color" bg_grad="" bg_color_value="#07142c" parallax_style="vcpb-vz-jquery" bg_image_new="id^993396|url^https://d1p2aimeyx6kdr.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/02115007/texture_brique2.jpg|caption^null|alt^null|title^texture_brique2|description^null" layer_image="" bg_image_repeat="" bg_image_size="initial" bg_cstm_size="" bg_img_attach="" parallax_sense="30" bg_image_posiiton="" animation_direction="" animation_repeat="" video_url="" video_url_2="" u_video_url="" video_opts="" video_poster="" u_start_time="" u_stop_time="" viewport_vdo="" enable_controls="" controls_color="" bg_override="" disable_on_mobile_img_parallax="" parallax_content="" parallax_content_sense="" fadeout_row="" fadeout_start_effect="" enable_overlay="" overlay_color="" overlay_pattern="" overlay_pattern_opacity="" overlay_pattern_size="" overlay_pattern_attachment="" multi_color_overlay="uvc-multi-color-bg" multi_color_overlay_opacity="" seperator_enable="" seperator_type="" seperator_position="" seperator_shape_size="" seperator_svg_height="" seperator_shape_background="" seperator_shape_border="" seperator_shape_border_color="" seperator_shape_border_width="" icon_type="" icon="" icon_size="" icon_color="" icon_style="" icon_color_bg="" icon_border_style="" icon_color_border="" icon_border_size="" icon_border_radius="" icon_border_spacing="" icon_img="" img_width="" ult_hide_row="" ult_hide_row_large_screen="" ult_hide_row_desktop="" ult_hide_row_tablet="" ult_hide_row_tablet_small="" ult_hide_row_mobile="" ult_hide_row_mobile_large="" notification="" full_width="stretch_row" equal_height="" content_placement="" design__empty_1="" full_height="" columns_placement="top" background="" background_image_type="static" background_image__effect="" bg_size="initial" bg_position="center-center" row_bg_image="" bg_repeat="no-repeat" background_image_type__bg_color="rgba(255, 255, 255, 1)" row_bg_parallax_images="" row_bg_slideshow_images="" background_video_type="youtube" background_video__youtube__url="" background_video__youtube__parallax="" background_video__youtube__options="" background_video__youtube__fallback_image="" background_video__hosted__mp4="" background_video__hosted__webm="" background_video__hosted__ogv="" background_video__hosted__parallax="" background_video__hosted__options="" background_video__hosted__fallback_image="" background_color_type="color" bg__empty_1="" background_color_type__gradient_color1="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" background_color_type__gradient_color2="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" background_color_type__color_color1="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" bg__empty_2="" background_color__effect="" background_color__direction="left-to-right" parallax="" parallax_speed_bg="1.5" parallax_image="" video_bg="" video_bg_url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMJXxhRFO1k" video_bg_parallax="" el_id="" gap="0" disable_element="" settings__tag_1="" viewport_lg="" viewport_md="" viewport_sm="" viewport_xs="" settings__empty_1="" el_class="" version="1" css=".vc_custom_1635370942053{background-color: #e2cfb1 !important;}"][vc_column extend="false"][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner extend="false"][vc_empty_space][vc_column_text]

Catastrophes naturelles 2021 Coûts estimés

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Sources: GDV (German insurers association), Assuralia, Business insurance, Swiss Re institute, Reuters

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background_color_type__color_color1="rgba(44, 74, 228, 1)" bg__empty_2="" background_color__effect="" background_color__direction="left-to-right" parallax="" parallax_speed_bg="1.5" parallax_image="" video_bg="" video_bg_url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMJXxhRFO1k" video_bg_parallax="" el_id="" gap="0" disable_element="" settings__tag_1="" viewport_lg="" viewport_md="" viewport_sm="" viewport_xs="" settings__empty_1="" el_class="" version="1" css=""][vc_column extend="false"][vc_empty_space][vc_column_text]

Touche pas à ma concurrence 

[/vc_column_text][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner extend="false" width="2/3"][vc_column_text]LIVRE BLANC

Le président de la NZIA a annoncé la publication, dans les mois qui viennent, d’un livre blanc qui servira d’outil concret aux acteurs et notamment aux clients afin d’écrire noir sur blanc en quoi consiste la décarbonisation d’un portefeuille d’assureur. « Après cette publication ce sera au tour de chacun des membres de l’alliance d’adopter des objectifs intermédiaires en 2023. Tout le monde doit converger mais chacun a sa façon d’y arriver en fonction de ses lignes de produits et sa présence géographique. Nous ne partons pas tous du même point de départ », détaille Renaud Guidée.

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Alliance, accord, pacte, unification, on l’aura compris l’union fait la force. Ce qui n’empêche les assureurs d’appliquer la règle du chacun chez soi. « Il y a une règle que nous devons respecter, c’est celle du droit de la concurrence. Nous faisons donc ensemble ce que nous avons le droit de mettre en commun, explique Renaud Guidée. Nous coopérons activement sur les sujets de méthodologie et d’indicateurs mais chaque groupe continue à définir sa stratégie, son positionnement commercial et ses relations clients. Ces points restent abordés individuellement et surtout ils restent confidentiels ». Les assureurs mettront donc en commun ce qu’ils peuvent. Du côté de la méthodologie – partie du tronc commun des discussions – les 8 membres se réunissent activement, soit environ une fois par mois pour des discussions collectives. Un point sur lequel ils sont d’ores et déjà tous tombé d’accord est la méthodologie. Elle sera fondée sur des objectifs scientifiques. « Nous sommes engagés dans une démarche de fond qui touche à la manière dont nous intégrons les enjeux climatiques dans la gestion des portefeuilles. C’est la clé de notre démarche », déclare le président de la NZIA.

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Enfin, l’alliance des assureurs et réassureurs connaît aujourd’hui son premier grand rassemblement. Elle sera pour cette occasion représentée par une équipe restreinte – crise sanitaire oblige – composée de son président, Renaud Guidée accompagné par le responsable de communication avec les pouvoirs publics de la NZIA, ainsi que Butch Bacani, responsable des programmes des Nations Unies pour le pôle assurance responsable et durable.

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Un parcours semé d'embûches

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Un temps de retard

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Fruit du succès de l’alliance des investisseurs qui a été créée en 2019, l’initiative des assureurs a été accueillie avec clameur malgré une réactivité tardive à laquelle viennent se rajouter désormais 18 mois de réflexion.

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De leur côté, assureurs et réassureurs se défendent :

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« Il y a une énorme complexité autour du cadre d'allocation des émissions à travers les différentes politiques d’assurances que les entreprises achètent. Nous devons établir des normes industrielles avant de pouvoir commencer à faire des déclarations d'engagements, explique Paul Nunn. Si vous êtes un investisseur et que vous détenez 1% des actions d'une entreprise, vous êtes responsable de 1% de ses émissions de carbone. Or dans l’assurance, une seule entreprise peut souscrire 100 assurances différentes. Il est donc beaucoup plus complexe d'attribuer les émissions d'une entreprise à ses politiques d'assurance. Et cela devient encore plus compliqué si on réalise qu’un assureur ne souscrit souvent qu’un dixième des polices d’assurance achetées par l’entreprise ».

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À l’aide d’instruments de mesure plus aboutis, les investisseurs ont rapidement obtenu la capacité de transiter et d’imposer certains critères. Néanmoins, ce n’est pas l’unique point sur lequel ils se démarquent des assureurs.

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« En tant qu’investisseur, lorsque vous lancez un fonds climat, environnement ou ESG, vous bénéficiez d’une forte demande et d’un cadre méthodologique éprouvé . La démarche est encore exploratoire dans le domaine de l’assurance. Atteindre la neutralité dans nos portefeuilles nécessitera un dialogue soutenu avec nos clients car il s’agit avant tout d’accompagner leur propre transition vers des modèles bas carbone. Il y a donc également un travail à faire sur ce point », explique Renaud Guidée.

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« Il ne faut pas oublier que les assureurs sont aussi des hommes d’affaires avec un but qui est de gagner des parts de marché. Lorsque plusieurs acteurs tournent le dos à un projet important parce qu’il n’est pas environnementalement correct alors qu’il est supposé rapporter de l’argent, l’assureur le voit comme une perte », constate un acteur de la place après avoir refusé un nouveau projet basé sur une énergie fossile.

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Il est vrai que le secteur n’avait pas attendu la NZIA pour s’engager sur le climat. Axa a été pionner dans ce domaine avec l’exclusion du charbon de ses investissements dès 2015 ainsi que de ses couvertures d’assurance deux ans plus tard, et il n’est désormais plus seul sur cette voie. Néanmoins, les engagements pleuvant, il en était tout autant pour les exceptions et les seuils d’exclusions. En faisant preuve de bonne volonté comme la présentation d'une stratégie de sortie du charbon, les entreprises pouvaient s'attendre à une couverture de la part des assureurs. De plus, la manière dont les assureurs appliquent ces engagements reste encore floue.

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La transparence, la clé pour une meilleure analyse du risque 

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La déclinaison du risque de changement climatique en risque physique, risque de transition et risque de responsabilité renvoie à des risques connus des assureurs, qui peuvent s’appuyer sur des outils et des procédures de gestion des risques déjà en place. Pour autant, les multiples dimensions du changement climatique imposent de nouvelles adaptations représentatives des futurs défis de l’alliance. « Lorsque vous êtes un assureur, le modèle d’analyse du risque est une barrière supplémentaire contrairement aux investisseurs qui n’en ont pas », ajoute Renaud Guidée.

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Transparence entre les acteurs

« Les réassureurs ont pour leur part un défi additionnel à relever. Prenons l’exemple de la réassurance de l'ensemble du portefeuille d’une société comme Axa : il y a un enjeu de transparence des données, savoir ce qui est dans le portefeuille d'origine, données que le réassureur n’a pas aujourd’hui. Nous devons aborder le premier niveau de complexité avant de nous engager à généraliser les flux d'informations à travers l'industrie, car nous aurons besoin d’abord d'un ensemble de normes et de pratiques avec les assureurs pour partager les informations après que nous nous soyons mis d'accord sur le protocole », explique Paul Nunn.

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Transparence des nouveaux acteurs

Bien que les acteurs soient encore divisés sur la question de l’accompagnement des entreprises dites brunes vers une activité plus durable, les sociétés dites responsables apportent également leurs lots de difficultés aux assureurs. « Le secteur des assurances a plus de 100 ans d'expérience dans les risques liés à l'industrie pétrolière et gazière. Ces risques sont bien compris, mais certaines de ces nouvelles technologies apportent de nouveaux risques. Des risques à analyser et calculer afin d’atteindre nos engagements. C’est une étape nécessaire afin de soutenir les nouvelles technologies et les infrastructures permettant un avenir à faible émission de carbone, argumente Paul Nunn. Nous allons être proactifs et soutenir ces nouvelles technologies grâce à notre expertise technique. L'économie sera ainsi poussée à se décarboniser et à se transformer ».

La modélisation du risque, cœur de métier des assureurs, est alors mise à mal. « Les profils de risques des portefeuilles sont aussi susceptibles d’évoluer.. « Des activités 'vertes' peuvent présenter des risques plus élevés que des technologies 'brunes' plus matures. Combien de fois avez-vous vu une station essence prendre feu en Europe ? C’est très rare, contrairement à un panneau solaire par exemple ou encore une éolienne qui s’envole à la force du vent », ajoute Renaud Guidée.

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Pour autant, des mesures doivent aujourd’hui être prises afin de faire baisser les financements et les couvertures de projets contribuant activement à la destruction de la planète. Une grande partie du capital actuellement bloquée dans l'industrie du pétrole et du gaz est redéployée dans l'industrie à faible émission de carbone.

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Pourtant, en 2021, les revenus totaux du secteur du forage pétrolier et gazier s'élevaient à environ 2.100 milliards de dollars, selon une étude de marché réalisée par IBISWorld. Pour rappel, ce secteur est composé d'entreprises qui explorent, développent et exploitent des gisements de pétrole et de gaz. A bien des égards, l'engagement des assureurs aura un effet mondial important dans la réallocation du capital vers des domaines durables et responsables.

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La puissance des pouvoirs publics

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Afin de participer plus amplement à la transition, les assureurs ont également la possibilité d’utiliser d’autres canaux par lesquels ils peuvent rapidement impacter l’économie tout entière. Néanmoins, sur ce point, un besoin de réglementation et d’aide des pouvoirs publics se fait sentir.

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« Le secteur des assurances dépense des milliards de dollars en sinistres chaque année. Lorsque nous remplaçons des appareils électroménagers, des systèmes de chauffage, des unités de climatisation, il y a une énorme opportunité de les remplacer par des appareils plus efficaces et plus accessibles. Si les normes de construction changent et qu'il devient obligatoire de ne pas introduire de chauffage à gaz dans une maison par exemple, alors toute l'industrie pourra avancer ensemble », explique Paul Nunn.

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De son côté le projet de loi climat issu des travaux de la Convention citoyenne devrait donner du fil à retordre aux assureurs. Le rapport se lance dans une véritable chasse aux véhicules polluants, notamment l’article 25 du texte qui fixe un objectif de fin de vente de ce type de voiture en 2030. Une telle mesure pose la question du remplacement du véhicule en cas de sinistre. Le remplacement d’un véhicule âgé de plusieurs années par un véhicule non-polluant représente un coût. Qui sera l’acteur en charge de prendre en compte le coût de cette transition ?

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Les prochaines étapes réglementaires qu'attendent les assureurs 

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Une Europe qui tâtonne

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Alors que la Commission européenne s’est prononcée le 22 septembre au sujet de la révision de Solvabilité II, soit plusieurs mois après que l’Eiopa a rendu son rapport, l’autorité européenne a décidé de remettre à plus tard la question de la relance verte et cela afin d’« évaluer l’adéquation des exigences de fonds propres sous Solvabilité II pour les actifs verts ». Cette décision pourrait amener les autorités à exiger des fonds propres moins importants aux assureurs en cas d’investissement vert, ce qui devrait encourager les acteurs à promouvoir ce type d’investissement. Pour rappel, la révision de Solvabilité II devrait être approuvé en 2024.

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Enfin, bien que le pétrole ait été évincé de la taxonomie, la Commission européenne n’a toujours pas tranché au sujet du gaz et du nucléaire. Le bras de fer entre les deux géants européens, la France et l’Allemagne, divise encore et toujours. Les élections allemandes devraient permettre à l’Europe d’y voir un peu plus clair sur le sujet avant d’imposer aux assureurs dès janvier 2022 un reporting annuel strict et dès 2023, une transparence accrue sur les alignements des produits avec le système de classification.

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« Si la Commission a permis aux industries gazière et nucléaire d’arriver sur le seuil de la taxonomie, elles ne l’ont pas encore franchie. C’est un moment de vie ou de mort pour la taxonomie durable, avec des conséquences potentiellement énormes pour le climat. Reclaim Finance appelle la Commission, le Parlement européen et les États membres à tenir compte de la science et à exclure le gaz et l’énergie nucléaire de la taxonomie, sauvant ainsi le porte-étendard de la stratégie finance durable de l’UE. Mais la taxonomie n’est qu’une étape dans la transition de l’UE vers la durabilité. Pour que celle-ci réussisse, il est grand temps que les lobbyistes des énergies fossiles soient expulsés des couloirs européens », indique Reclaim Finance dans un communiqué.

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Bercy fait peau neuve

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Un nouveau comité en charge du label ISR a fait son entrée à Bercy début octobre 2021. En charge de plus de 750 fonds, représentant 600Mds d’euros d’encours, les nouveaux membres auront comme responsabilité de réviser en profondeur le cahier des charges du label, dont la révision devrait être publiée avant la fin de l’année. L’initiative devrait permettre aux assureurs de continuer sur leurs lancées au sujet de l’investissement de l’épargne des Français, pour qui rendement et durabilité ne font presque plus qu’un.

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De nombreux défis attendent des assureurs qui, dans leur course contre le réchauffement climatique, auront besoin de l’aide des pouvoirs publics, d'une plus grande transparence, de leurs concurrents mais aussi et surtout de l’engagement des entreprises et des clients. Néanmoins, le secteur a brisé la glace avec la création d’une alliance grâce à laquelle ils pourraient désormais entrer dans l’Histoire.

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